21% — Will Roddy Ricch have a top 10 song this year
Kalshi 21% · 20 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 16:17:17 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects that Roddy Ricch has a 26% chance of landing a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 during 2026. His current standing relative to comparable artists—notably higher than Chris Brown (8%) but lower than Billie Eilish (29%)—suggests moderate market confidence in his ability to achieve chart success this year. The main factors driving this level are his recent release activity and streaming performance, as well as whether he secures feature collaborations with high-profile artists. The resolution depends primarily on which songs receive radio promotion and gain streaming traction, with clarity emerging as songs are released and tracked on the Billboard Hot 100 chart in real-time throughout 2026.

Key factors:
- Roddy Ricch's chart performance in H1 2026 to date compared to his historical baseline of top 10 entries
- The volume and commercial viability of his scheduled music releases for the remainder of 2026
- Whether he secures feature collaborations with artists having stronger chart momentum than him
- Radio station playlisting decisions and promotional push from his label in the coming months
- Competitive landscape shifts if other artists' releases cannibalize streaming and chart positioning

Contracts:
- Will SZA have a top 10 song this year?: SZA — 55¢ Kalshi $635 (weight 11%)
- Will EsDeeKid have a top 10 song this year?: EsDeeKid — 9¢ Kalshi $596 (weight 11%)
- Will Billie Eilish have a top 10 song this year?: Billie Eilish — 52¢ Kalshi $522 (weight 9%)
- Will Charlie Puth have a top 10 song this year?: Charlie Puth — 8¢ Kalshi $500 (weight 9%)
- Will Lana Del Rey have a top 10 song this year?: Lana Del Rey — 10¢ Kalshi $500 (weight 9%)
- Will Stray Kids have a top 10 song this year?: Stray Kids — 12¢ Kalshi $329 (weight 6%)
- Will KAROL G have a top 10 song this year?: KAROL G — 14¢ Kalshi $269 (weight 5%)
- Will mgk have a top 10 song this year?: mgk — 7¢ Kalshi $265 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T15:20:49.651Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/10song
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Roddy%20Ricch%20have%20a%20top%2010%20song%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev