93% — Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 60bps
Leader: Above -30bps at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 11 contracts · $47 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 01:46:09 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This question tracks whether the gap between longer-term and shorter-term Treasury yields will exceed 60 basis points on the last trading day of 2026. At 72% probability, markets estimate this is likely to occur. The yield curve's steepness depends primarily on Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation dynamics through year-end. If markets price in rate cuts or economic weakness, the 10-2 spread typically widens; if growth concerns ease or inflation remains sticky, the curve may flatten. The resolution depends entirely on Treasury pricing on December 31, 2026, with no intermediate catalysts—the spread will be what it will be on that specific date. Current market pricing reflects expectations that normal yield-curve relationships will prevail rather than remaining inverted or severely flattened.

Key factors:
- Current 10-2 spread is approximately -8 to 0 basis points; it must move steeper by 60+ bps in 5.5 months, a significant move from near-flat or inverted levels
- Fed policy trajectory through 2026: expectations of rate cuts or unchanged rates would support curve steepening, while further tightening would compress the spread
- Inflation data and growth indicators released before December 31 will drive whether market participants expect economic slowdown (steepens curve) or sustained strength (flattens curve)
- Historical 10-2 spreads exceed 60 bps during normal economic conditions but remain compressed during recessions or tightening cycles; current environment suggests recession-like inversion
- December 31, 2026 is the sole resolution date with no intermediate measurement; all uncertainty collapses on that specific Treasury closing print

Contracts:
- Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above -30bps?: Above -30bps — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above -20bps?: Above -20bps — 92¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 21%)
- Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above -10bps?: Above -10bps — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 0bps?: Above 0bps — 86¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 21%)
- Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 10bps?: Above 10bps — 76¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 6%)
- Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 20bps?: Above 20bps — 66¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 24%)
- Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 30bps?: Above 30bps — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 40bps?: Above 40bps — 43¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 27%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T01:20:51.461Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/10y2ydate
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20daily%2010-Year%20Treasury%20Constant%20Maturity%20minus%20the%202-year%20Treasury%20Constant%20Maturity%20for%20December%2031%2C%202026%20be%20above%2060bps
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev