93% — Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% by Jan 1, 2027
Leader: 5.02% or above at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 18 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 16:12:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 93% probability reflects market expectation that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will close above 4.99% on January 1, 2027—roughly 3.5 months away. The high probability suggests traders believe current yield levels, shaped by Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations, and growth forecasts, are unlikely to fall below this threshold before year-end. Key drivers include upcoming inflation data releases and Fed communications that could signal rate-path expectations. The contract series shows declining probabilities at higher yield thresholds (89% at 5.01%, 86% at 5.02%), indicating markets price in modest upside risk but consider significant further increases less likely. Resolution depends on macroeconomic conditions through December, particularly labor-market data and inflation readings that traditionally influence bond yields.

Key factors:
- Current 10Y yield levels are near or above 4.99%, making a sustained drop below this threshold the primary price movement required to resolve 'No'
- Fed policy expectations and inflation outlook through Q4 2026 will heavily influence yield trajectories; any surprise tightening or deflation signals could pressure yields downward
- The probability gradient across contracts (93% at 4.99% down to 86% at 5.02%) suggests market uncertainty is concentrated in the 4.99–5.03% range rather than at extremes
- Monthly employment and CPI releases between September and December 2026 will be the most direct catalysts for yield re-pricing
- Bond market liquidity and demand from foreign central banks near year-end could amplify or dampen yield volatility independent of fundamental data

Contracts:
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.02% or above — 93¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 38%)
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.03% or above — 89¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 1%)
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.04% or above — 87¢ Kalshi $281 (weight 10%)
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.05% or above — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.06% or above — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.07% or above — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.08% or above — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.09% or above — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-20T15:20:49.714Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/10yrdirhm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%2010Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%205.07%25%20by%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev