17% — Will NF have a #1 hit this year
Kalshi 17% · 17 contracts · $568 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:29 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the estimated chance that rapper NF releases a track that reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point during 2026. At 12%, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but not remote. NF's recent chart performance and release schedule are primary drivers—the artist has had moderate chart success but limited #1 placements historically. The main uncertainty hinges on whether NF plans a major single release in 2026 and whether any new material gains sufficient streaming and sales momentum to compete with higher-profile artists for chart dominance. The resolution depends on official Billboard Hot 100 rankings as they're published throughout the year.

Key factors:
- NF's most recent album release date and any announced 2026 singles or tour plans
- NF's historical Billboard Hot 100 chart performance, including peak positions and frequency of charting entries
- Competitive landscape: whether major label artists drop chart-dominating releases that would displace a potential NF single
- Current streaming volume and audience engagement metrics compared to artists with higher #1 probability estimates
- Definition clarity: whether the #1 refers specifically to the main Hot 100 chart or includes sub-charts, which affects resolution likelihood

Contracts:
- Will Sam Smith have a #1 hit this year?: Sam Smith — 4¢ Kalshi $120 (weight 21%)
- Will KATSEYE have a #1 hit this year?: KATSEYE — 7¢ Kalshi $109 (weight 19%)
- Will Mariah Carey have a #1 hit this year?: Mariah Carey — 90¢ Kalshi $98 (weight 17%)
- Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit this year?: Gracie Abrams — 17¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 17%)
- Will Doja Cat have a #1 hit this year?: Doja Cat — 6¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 9%)
- Will SZA have a #1 hit this year?: SZA — 10¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 8%)
- Will Rauw Alejandro have a #1 hit this year?: Rauw Alejandro — 3¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 2%)
- Will Post Malone have a #1 hit this year?: Post Malone — 51¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 2%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.254Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/1song
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20NF%20have%20a%20%231%20hit%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev