81% — Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028 Leader: Rahm Emanuel at 81% · Kalshi 81% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-07 03:55:15 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents the market's assessment that California Governor Gavin Newsom has an 82% probability of running for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. The high likelihood reflects his current position as a prominent Democratic governor without declared disqualifying factors, though the outcome remains uncertain pending political developments over the next 18+ months. The probability could shift based on changes in Newsom's stated political intentions, major shifts in Democratic Party dynamics, or unexpected personal or professional circumstances. The 2028 Democratic National Convention and any earlier announcements by major party figures will ultimately determine whether this contract resolves affirmatively. Other potential candidates like J.B. Pritzker (74%) and Cory Booker (65%) show measurably lower probabilities, suggesting market participants view Newsom as the leading candidate to enter the race among those listed. Key factors: - Newsom's public statements and explicit declarations regarding 2028 candidacy will be the primary resolution mechanism - Democratic Party power dynamics and endorsement patterns could shift incentives or viability for any major candidate between now and 2028 - Unexpected political or personal developments affecting Newsom's career trajectory or availability could materially alter the probability - Competition or crowding in the Democratic field—including whether other high-probability candidates actually run—affects individual candidate likelihood - Historical patterns show that early 2026-era polling of presidential intentions often diverges substantially from actual 2028 behavior Contracts: - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Rahm Emanuel — 81¢ Kalshi $475 (weight 23%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 81¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Pete Buttigieg — 81¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Andy Beshear — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Ro Khanna — 75¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 5%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Kamala Harris — 75¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mark Kelly — 69¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Jon Ossoff — 65¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 2%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-07T03:20:50.757Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/2028drun Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20run%20for%20the%20Democratic%20presidential%20nomination%20in%202028 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev