82% — Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028 Leader: Gavin Newsom at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 19 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-21 09:28:50 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects market expectations that Gavin Newsom will seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, currently priced at 86%. The high probability reflects Newsom's visibility as California's governor, his national profile, and minimal public indication he would decline to run. The probability could shift downward if Newsom withdraws from politics, faces significant legal or political setbacks, or announces intentions to pursue other offices. The main uncertainty stems from typical pre-campaign uncertainty—politicians frequently signal different intentions closer to actual nomination periods. Key catalysts include statements from Newsom himself regarding 2028, major developments in his governorship that could affect his viability, and consolidation patterns among other Democratic candidates that might influence his calculus about running. Key factors: - Newsom has maintained national political visibility through 2024-2026 without withdrawing from consideration for higher office - The 83% runner-up probability indicates significant market uncertainty about who the second-most-likely candidate is, suggesting no consensus alternative has emerged - Harris at 55¢ reflects incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris's potential candidacy, representing the highest individual alternative contract price - No formal candidate announcements or explicit rejections from Newsom have been documented that would typically precede a significant probability shift - Historical patterns show most sitting governors who maintain national profiles and avoid disqualifying events tend to enter presidential races in open primaries Contracts: - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 82¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 3%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Pete Buttigieg — 82¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 1%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Andy Beshear — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Josh Shapiro — 76¢ Kalshi $164 (weight 14%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Cory Booker — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Chris Murphy — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Jon Ossoff — 60¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 1%) - Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mark Kelly — 59¢ Kalshi $179 (weight 15%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-21T09:20:48.942Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/2028drun Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20run%20for%20the%20Democratic%20presidential%20nomination%20in%202028 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev