72% — Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 Leader: J.D. Vance at 72% · Kalshi 72% · 19 contracts · $43 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:16 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that a specific individual will declare candidacy for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. At 51 cents, Tucker Carlson currently has the highest implied probability among tracked candidates, followed by Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump Jr. at 29 cents each. The market's assessment depends on several observable factors: each candidate's public statements about 2028 ambitions, their current political positioning and media influence, organizational infrastructure development, and historical precedent for similar figures. The probability could shift significantly based on major political realignments, changes in candidate viability following 2026 midterm outcomes, or explicit public statements confirming or denying candidacy intentions. Resolution will occur when the 2028 Republican National Convention process formally begins and candidates officially declare their intentions, providing definitive confirmation of participation. Key factors: - Tucker Carlson's media platform and political profile give him higher name recognition than other tracked candidates, directly affecting his market pricing relative to less-established figures - Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump Jr. each command 29-cent valuations despite different political constituencies, suggesting the market is uncertain about which Trump-aligned candidate might emerge - 24-hour trading volume concentration ($54 on Carlson vs. $7-19 on other candidates) indicates asymmetric market interest, potentially reflecting either stronger conviction or limited price discovery on lower-volume contracts - No candidate has unambiguously announced 2028 intentions as of May 2026, leaving significant uncertainty about who will actually participate in the nomination process - The market is pricing specific individuals rather than likelihood of contested primary, suggesting differentiated assessments of each candidate's viability and intent Contracts: - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: J.D. Vance — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Marco Rubio — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Ron DeSantis — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Glenn Youngkin — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Rand Paul — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 1%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Nikki Haley — 33¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 58%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Brian Kemp — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:11.348Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "72% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/2028rrun Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20run%20for%20the%20Republican%20presidential%20nomination%20in%202028 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev