62% — Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 Leader: Marco Rubio at 62% · Kalshi 62% · 20 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 00:13:52 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that J.D. Vance will seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, currently priced at 77 cents. As Vice President under Donald Trump's second term, Vance holds significant positioning for a potential run, though uncertainty remains about whether he will actually declare candidacy. The current market level suggests traders view a nomination bid as more likely than not, but not overwhelmingly certain. Key factors that could shift this probability include formal statements from Vance about his intentions, major policy disagreements within the administration, or unforeseen political developments. The resolution date of this market will be determined by the Republican National Convention in 2028, where the party's nominee becomes official. Between now and then, Vance's visibility, policy alignment with party activists, and any public positioning regarding 2028 will be primary drivers of how this probability evolves. Key factors: - Vance's current position as Vice President provides institutional platform and fundraising advantages, but also creates constraints on independent political positioning - No formal declaration or public commitment from Vance regarding a 2028 run has been made; current probability rests on market inference rather than announced intentions - Alternative Republican candidates collectively priced under 2 cents (Tucker Carlson, Trump Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy, Gregory Bovino) suggest market consolidation around Vance as frontrunner, not consensus inevitability - Historical precedent shows sitting Vice Presidents often face primary challenges or decide against running based on political conditions 18-24 months before elections - Resolution depends on Republican National Convention outcome in 2028; any third-party or independent candidacy by Vance would resolve this contract negatively despite potential electoral significance Contracts: - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Marco Rubio — 62¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Ron DeSantis — 60¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 1%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Josh Hawley — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Rand Paul — 41¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Thomas Massie — 40¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 1%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Glenn Youngkin — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Marjorie Taylor Greene — 34¢ Kalshi $174 (weight 5%) - Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Brian Kemp — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:49.274Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "62% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/2028rrun Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20run%20for%20the%20Republican%20presidential%20nomination%20in%202028 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev