15% — Will Billie Eilish have a top 20 song this year Kalshi 15% · 17 contracts · $278 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 11:28:30 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the likelihood that Billie Eilish releases or has a song that ranks in the top 20 on the Billboard Hot 100 or similar major chart during 2026. The 20% assessment suggests modest odds, indicating either a recent lack of commercial momentum or absence of confirmed upcoming releases. Key drivers include whether she has new music scheduled for release this year and how it performs against competition from other established artists. The main uncertainty resolver will be actual chart performance data as any new singles release and accumulate weeks on major charts. Current market activity shows significant interest in near-term streaming metrics, suggesting traders are monitoring short-term performance signals as proxies for longer-term commercial success. Key factors: - No confirmed major Billie Eilish single release or album announcement as of early May 2026 that would guarantee chart eligibility - J. Cole and Nicki Minaj are priced higher (19¢ and 25¢) despite comparable market conditions, suggesting traders perceive stronger likelihood of output from those artists - Streaming volume contracts for Eilish show 8-9¢ pricing for weekly targets around 232-237 million streams, indicating baseline audience activity but uncertainty about chart breakthrough - Historical chart performance: artists require sustained commercial output and radio/streaming promotion to achieve top 20 placements in competitive market conditions - Time remaining in 2026 (approximately 7-8 months) provides window for new releases, but lack of announcement suggests lower probability of near-term activity Contracts: - Will Rihanna have a top 20 song this year?: Rihanna — 11¢ Kalshi $263 (weight 95%) - Will Charlie Puth have a top 20 song this year?: Charlie Puth — 7¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 5%) - Will 2 Chainz have a top 20 song this year?: 2 Chainz — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Addison Rae have a top 20 song this year?: Addison Rae — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lil Baby have a top 20 song this year?: Lil Baby — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bebe Rexha have a top 20 song this year?: Bebe Rexha — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Benson Boone have a top 20 song this year?: Benson Boone — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Beyoncé have a top 20 song this year?: Beyoncé — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T11:20:49.198Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/20song Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Billie%20Eilish%20have%20a%20top%2020%20song%20this%20year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev