96% — 2nd largest company end of May
Leader: Alphabet at 96% · Polymarket 96% · 2 contracts · $48K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:13:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability estimates the likelihood that Alphabet will be the second-largest publicly traded company by market capitalization at the end of May 2026. Market participants assign Alphabet an 87% chance of holding this position, with Apple at 3% and NVIDIA at 10%. The ranking depends primarily on relative stock price movements and market sentiment around each company's fundamentals. Tech valuations have historically been volatile, and shifts in investor preference between search/advertising (Alphabet), consumer devices (Apple), and AI chips (NVIDIA) could alter rankings. The outcome resolves based on market capitalization data published at month-end, making this sensitive to any major corporate announcements, earnings surprises, or macroeconomic shifts affecting sector rotation between now and May 31, 2026.

Key factors:
- Alphabet currently trades at approximately $180+ billion ahead of Apple and NVIDIA in market cap; Apple would need significant outperformance to overtake it by month-end
- NVIDIA's AI momentum could drive rapid valuation changes; any major contract wins or guidance beats would directly pressure Alphabet's ranking
- Aggregate volume across three contracts remains relatively modest ($7,200 in 24h volume), suggesting limited institutional participation and potential price sensitivity to new information
- Apple faces specific risks including iPhone sales data and services growth narrative; any disappointing earnings would reinforce current market positioning
- Macroeconomic factors—particularly interest rate expectations and AI investment cycles—could trigger sector-wide reallocation affecting all three companies simultaneously

Contracts:
- 2nd largest company end of May?: Alphabet — 96¢ Polymarket $23K (weight 49%)
- 2nd largest company end of May?: Apple — 3¢ Polymarket $25K (weight 51%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T19:20:08.403Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/2nd-largest-company-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2nd%20largest%20company%20end%20of%20May
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev