96% — Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027
Leader: 5.34% or above at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 15 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 16:12:53 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 96% probability that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will close at or above 5.29% on January 1, 2027—roughly 103 days away. The tight clustering of contract prices (83¢ to 96¢) indicates strong consensus that yields will remain elevated, though meaningful disagreement persists on whether they'll exceed 5.35%. The probability is primarily driven by current yield levels and expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy through year-end. The primary uncertainty revolves around whether inflation data, employment reports, and Fed communications between now and December will sustain current rate levels or spark a decline. No single scheduled event determines this outcome; rather, cumulative economic data releases and Fed communications through December will influence whether the 30Y yield drifts lower or stabilizes above 5.29%.

Key factors:
- The 30Y Treasury yield closed above 5.29% on multiple recent trading days, making a sustained breakout below that level the primary path to market resolution against the 96% pricing
- The next 100 days will include at least three CPI reports, multiple jobs reports, and Fed communications; a significant inflation surprise downward or recession signal could pressure yields lower
- The implied probability gradient shows 83% conviction at 5.35% but 96% at 5.29%, indicating that market participants view the 5.29–5.35% range as the critical zone where uncertainty concentrates
- Current 30Y yield levels reflect Fed policy expectations; any material shift in terminal rate guidance or inflation outlook could shift the probability outside the current range
- Liquidity in the 5.35%+ contract ($200 daily volume) is significantly higher than runner-up contracts, suggesting active disagreement among traders on whether yields will push into the upper bound

Contracts:
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.33% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.34% or above — 96¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 74%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.35% or above — 90¢ Kalshi $261 (weight 3%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.4% or above — 80¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.38% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.39% or above — 79¢ Kalshi $731 (weight 7%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.35% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.36% or above — 76¢ Kalshi $115 (weight 1%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.36% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.37% or above — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.40% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.41% or above — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.41% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.42% or above — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-20T15:20:49.908Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/30yrdirhm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%2030Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%205.39%25%20by%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev