3% — 3rd largest company end of May
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $6K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:57 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates the likelihood that Apple will be the third-largest company by market capitalization at the end of May 2026. Currently trading at 95%, this reflects strong confidence in Apple maintaining its position ahead of competitors like Alphabet. The high probability is driven by Apple's substantial market capitalization and historical stability in rankings. Movement in this market would primarily depend on significant market-cap changes among the top companies—either Apple declining substantially or competitors like Alphabet gaining ground rapidly. Major catalysts include earnings announcements, macroeconomic shifts affecting tech valuations, or significant corporate developments. The May 31, 2026 close will definitively resolve the market based on official market-cap rankings at that date.

Key factors:
- Apple's current market cap relative to Alphabet and Microsoft as of mid-May 2026
- Earnings reports or guidance revisions from major tech companies before month-end
- Broad market movements and sector rotation affecting large-cap valuations
- Major acquisitions, capital allocation announcements, or regulatory developments impacting any top-5 company
- Volatility in tech stock prices during the final weeks of May affecting relative rankings

Contracts:
- 3rd largest company end of May?: Alphabet — 3¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.251Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/3rd-largest-company-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=3rd%20largest%20company%20end%20of%20May
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev