22% — Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.84 on Dec 31
Leader: Above $1.54 at 22% · Kalshi 22% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-12 23:03:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects whether NVIDIA's A100 SXM4 GPU hourly rental pricing will exceed $1.84 by year-end 2026. The market currently assigns 96% odds to this outcome, though trading volume on the highest-price thresholds ($1.84 and $1.99) is very thin, suggesting limited conviction despite the high probability. The current trajectory and pricing structure for GPU compute capacity, ongoing demand from AI infrastructure buildout, and supply dynamics of enterprise-grade GPUs will determine whether costs rise to or exceed this level. Resolution depends on actual pricing offered by major cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) on December 31, 2026. The wide gap between the heavily-traded lower thresholds ($0.04–$0.34, priced at 93–94%) and the headline contract suggests markets see strong probability of moderate price increases but much less certainty about reaching the highest specified tier.

Key factors:
- Current A100 SXM4 hourly pricing on major cloud platforms and historical price trajectory from June 2026 through December 2026
- Supply and demand dynamics for enterprise GPU capacity, including new GPU model releases and competitive alternatives to the A100 line
- Trading volume concentration at lower price thresholds ($0.04–$0.34) versus extremely thin volume at $1.84–$1.99, indicating disagreement about tail probabilities
- Definitional precision: which provider's official pricing, which region, and any volume discounts or contractual adjustments will be used for resolution
- Year-end 2026 cloud pricing announcements or contract terms from AWS, Google Cloud, or Azure that establish the reference price

Contracts:
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.54 by Dec 31?: Above $1.54 — 22¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.14 by Dec 31?: Above $2.14 — 21¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.29 by Dec 31?: Above $2.29 — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.99 by Dec 31?: Above $1.99 — 20¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.44 by Dec 31?: Above $2.44 — 16¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.39 by Dec 31?: Above $1.39 — 13¢ Kalshi $386 (weight 23%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.59 by Dec 31?: Above $2.59 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.84 on Dec 31?: Above $1.84 — 6¢ Kalshi $994 (weight 60%)
- ... and 1 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-12T22:20:49.160Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/a100max
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20A100%20SXM4%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%241.84%20on%20Dec%2031
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev