77% — Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.25 in December 2026 Leader: Above $0.75 at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 19 contracts · $866 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-09 21:03:13 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects a 91% probability that NVIDIA's A100 GPU will trade at an average monthly price above $1.25 in December 2026. The high confidence suggests markets expect sustained demand and stable pricing for the A100 through year-end, despite ongoing competition from newer GPU architectures. The probability is driven primarily by current A100 pricing trends and expectations for enterprise datacenter adoption, though future GPU supply dynamics and shifts toward newer models like the H100 or B100 could pressure prices downward. The key uncertainty resolves in December 2026 when actual monthly average pricing is calculated, but interim data releases on datacenter GPU demand and NVIDIA's product roadmap announcements between now and then will provide early signals about whether the A100 sustains this price threshold. Key factors: - Current spot prices for A100 compute access are already near or above $1.25 per unit, making the threshold easily attainable under status quo conditions - Continued enterprise datacenter buildout and GPU scarcity in certain regions could maintain or elevate prices through December 2026 - Availability of competing architectures (H100, B100, or third-party alternatives) at lower cost could erode A100 demand and prices below the $1.25 level - August 2026 pricing data will provide a real-time test of the market's assumption; the runner-up contract at 86% shows traders expect prices to remain elevated in near-term months - Supply chain disruptions or unexpected demand surges could shift the outcome, but current volatility metrics ($45 24h volume on the December contract) suggest confidence in the forecast Contracts: - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.75 in February 2027?: Above $0.75 — 77¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 2%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.00 in February 2027?: Above $1.00 — 49¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 4%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.00 in July 2026?: Above $1.00 — 42¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 4%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.25 in August 2026?: Above $1.25 — 34¢ Kalshi $150 (weight 17%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.50 in August 2026?: Above $1.50 — 20¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 12%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $2.00 in August 2026?: Above $2.00 — 18¢ Kalshi $90 (weight 10%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.50 in September 2026?: Above $1.50 — 14¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 12%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $2.00 in February 2027?: Above $2.00 — 12¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 1%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-09T20:20:49.692Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/a100ms Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20monthly%20average%20compute%20price%20of%20NVIDIA's%20A100%20be%20above%20%241.25%20in%20December%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev