97% — Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.94 by Jun 30
Leader: Above $0.54 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 16 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 97% probability that NVIDIA's A100 SXM4 GPU compute will cost more than $1.94 per hour by June 30, 2026. The high confidence reflects the broader decline in cloud compute pricing over recent years, where GPU hourly rates have compressed as supply expanded and competition intensified among cloud providers. Downward pressure on pricing would need to reverse sharply—through either major supply constraints, demand surge, or cartel-like pricing coordination—to keep rates below $1.94. The market is implicitly pricing this outcome as extremely unlikely within the next month. The resolution will depend on actual quoted pricing from major cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) as of June 30, and whether any significant supply or demand shocks materialize between now and then.

Key factors:
- Historical GPU pricing trends show consistent hourly rate compression over 2023–2026, with A100 costs dropping from ~$3+ to ~$0.50–$1.00 range across major providers
- Current spot and on-demand rates from AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure need to remain above $1.94/hour on June 30; pricing below this threshold would require no further compression from today's levels
- Supply of A100 capacity has grown significantly due to new data center deployments and competitor chips (H100, L40S, newer generations); reduced scarcity would support lower pricing
- Major cloud providers' pricing announcements or promotions between now and June 30 could influence realized hourly rates at contract expiration
- If GPU shortage emerges or enterprise AI workload demand surges unexpectedly, it could support higher pricing; conversely, new chip releases or reduced utilization would push rates down

Contracts:
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.54 by Jun 30?: Above $0.54 — 97¢ Kalshi $135 (weight 10%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.74 by Jun 30?: Above $0.74 — 97¢ Kalshi $129 (weight 10%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.84 by Jun 30?: Above $0.84 — 97¢ Kalshi $123 (weight 9%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.64 by Jun 30?: Above $0.64 — 97¢ Kalshi $86 (weight 6%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.94 by Jun 30?: Above $0.94 — 95¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 10%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.04 by Jun 30?: Above $1.04 — 91¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 4%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.24 by Jun 30?: Above $1.24 — 73¢ Kalshi $66 (weight 5%)
- Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.14 by Jun 30?: Above $1.14 — 73¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 2%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:06.974Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/a100q
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20A100%20SXM4%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%241.94%20by%20Jun%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev