97% — Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10
Leader: Above $0.50 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 14 contracts · $160 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 21:03:14 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is assessing whether NVIDIA's A100 GPU will cost more than $2 per compute hour on July 10, 2026. The current 95% probability reflects expectations that prices will remain above this threshold, despite recent pricing pressure. The main driver is the competitive cloud computing market, where GPU pricing has been declining due to increased supply from multiple vendors and improved utilization efficiency. What could move this probability is either unexpected demand spikes that tighten GPU availability, or accelerated commoditization that pushes rental costs lower. The July 10 resolution date is a near-term checkpoint—earlier contract activity shows traders assessing intermediate price levels on July 3 and July 17, suggesting the market expects volatility around major cloud provider pricing announcements or usage reports during this period.

Key factors:
- NVIDIA A100 spot prices on major cloud platforms (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) in the week preceding July 10, particularly any rate changes announced by providers
- Competing GPU availability and pricing for alternatives (H100, L40S, TPUs), which directly influences A100 rental rates through substitution pressure
- Monthly or quarterly cloud computing pricing reports or earnings guidance released in early July that would signal demand or supply shifts
- Trading volume and implied volatility in the related contracts for July 3 and July 17 thresholds, which suggest market confidence in near-term stability versus longer-term pricing pressure
- Historical A100 pricing trend over the 10 days immediately before July 10, compared to the baseline assumption embedded in the 95% contract price

Contracts:
- Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $0.50 — 97¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 5%)
- Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.75 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $0.75 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.75 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $0.75 — 84¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 9%)
- Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 24?: Above $0.50 — 67¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 66%)
- Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.75 at 4 PM ET on Jul 24?: Above $0.75 — 67¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 16%)
- Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $1.00 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1 at 4 PM ET on Jul 24?: Above $1.00 — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $1.00 — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-09T20:20:49.238Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/a100ws
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20NVIDIA%20A100%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%242%20at%204%20PM%20ET%20on%20Jul%2010
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev