96% — Will average **gas prices** be above $3.975 Leader: Above 4.315 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 10 contracts · $49K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is pricing in a 96% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.44 per gallon over a specified period. The high probability reflects current market expectations based on crude oil dynamics, refinery capacity, and seasonal demand patterns. Gas prices are primarily driven by global crude oil production and geopolitical supply disruptions, alongside seasonal factors like summer driving demand and refinery maintenance schedules. The main uncertainty revolves around whether economic slowdown, increased oil production from key exporters, or demand destruction could pressure prices below this threshold. The critical catalyst will be crude oil pricing trends and any announced changes in strategic petroleum reserve releases or major supply disruptions. Traders are currently pricing meaningful tail risk below $4.46 per gallon, as evidenced by the sharp probability dropoff at higher price levels, suggesting consensus around baseline scenarios but substantial disagreement at the margins. Key factors: - WTI crude oil is currently trading near $70-80/barrel; a sustained drop below $60 would materially reduce probability of prices staying above $4.44 - U.S. refinery utilization rates and any announced maintenance shutdowns in the next 2-3 months directly affect supply and price floor expectations - Summer driving season demand (June-August peak) is a known seasonal tailwind; if demand data shows unexpected weakness, probabilities could shift downward - OPEC+ production decisions and any changes to output quotas announced in upcoming meetings would create immediate repricing - Strategic petroleum reserve levels and any announced purchases or releases by the Department of Energy would signal government market intervention Contracts: - Will average **gas prices** be above $4.315?: Above 4.315 — 96¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 8%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $4.305?: Above 4.305 — 96¢ Kalshi $385 (weight 1%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $4.300?: Above 4.300 — 96¢ Kalshi $276 (weight 1%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $4.310?: Above 4.310 — 95¢ Kalshi $374 (weight 1%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $4.320?: Above 4.320 — 93¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 6%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $4.325?: Above 4.325 — 90¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 12%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $4.330?: Above 4.330 — 76¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 27%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $4.335?: Above 4.335 — 36¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 16%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-31T19:20:12.385Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20%243.975 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev