92% — Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25
Leader: Above 2.50 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 11 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing in a 96% probability that average gas prices will exceed $4.44 per gallon, based on 20 competing price-threshold contracts. This high probability reflects current elevated fuel costs driven by crude oil pricing, refinery constraints, and seasonal demand patterns. The range of contracts ($4.44 to $4.50) shows traders are relatively confident prices will stay well above historical averages, though disagreement persists at higher thresholds. The probability would shift materially if crude oil prices decline significantly, global supply disruptions ease, or demand weakens unexpectedly. Resolution depends on actual price-tracking data over the contract period, with ongoing crude markets, OPEC decisions, and summer driving season dynamics serving as key information sources.

Key factors:
- Crude oil prices remain near or above $75–80 per barrel; any sustained drop below $70 would pressure the probability downward
- U.S. refinery utilization and any unplanned outages directly affect supply; significant maintenance or closure would support higher prices
- Seasonal gasoline demand typically peaks May–September; a weaker-than-expected summer driving season could reduce upside pressure
- The probability cliff narrows sharply above $4.46, suggesting traders assign low odds to prices above $4.50 despite the high confidence in $4.44+
- Global geopolitical risk (Middle East tensions, sanctions, supply disruptions) represents the largest upside catalyst; stability would favor lower probabilities

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above $2.50?: Above 2.50 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $2.75?: Above 2.75 — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.00?: Above 3.00 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25?: Above 3.25 — 81¢ Kalshi $443 (weight 36%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.50?: Above 3.50 — 73¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 8%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.75?: Above 3.75 — 65¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 8%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00?: Above 4.00 — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.25?: Above 4.25 — 46¢ Kalshi $484 (weight 39%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.085Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagased
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20%243.25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev