95% — Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25
Leader: Above 2.50 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 11 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:26:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the likelihood that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $3.25 per gallon over a specific measurement period. The 75-cent contract price implies roughly a 75% probability of this outcome. Current gas prices sit notably below this threshold, so the contract reflects expectations about price movements driven by crude oil futures, seasonal refining patterns, and geopolitical supply dynamics. The key tension: while markets price in a moderate-to-high chance of prices climbing above $3.25, this remains contingent on either sustained crude rallies or supply disruptions. The nearest catalyst is weekly petroleum inventory data and any geopolitical developments affecting crude supply. Traders are simultaneously hedging lower thresholds (91% odds above $2.50) while maintaining skepticism about sustained $3.25+ levels (only 35% odds above $3.50).

Key factors:
- Current WTI crude oil futures prices and their term structure suggest modest upward pressure but not aggressive rally momentum
- Seasonal refining maintenance patterns and summer driving demand typically support higher margins and pump prices in Q3
- No major geopolitical supply disruption or OPEC+ production cut is currently priced in, suggesting the outcome depends on normal supply-demand mechanics
- The contract probability declines sharply at higher thresholds ($3.50 at 35%), indicating markets expect prices to remain in the $2.75–$3.25 band rather than spike further
- Historical volatility in gas prices and recent price elasticity mean even 50-cent movements can occur within weeks based on crude swings or refinery incidents

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above $2.50?: Above 2.50 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $2.75?: Above 2.75 — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.00?: Above 3.00 — 89¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 20%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25?: Above 3.25 — 74¢ Kalshi $705 (weight 14%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.50?: Above 3.50 — 59¢ Kalshi $207 (weight 4%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.75?: Above 3.75 — 39¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 27%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00?: Above 4.00 — 23¢ Kalshi $104 (weight 2%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.25?: Above 4.25 — 13¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 23%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T00:20:51.212Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagased
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20%243.25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev