97% — Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60
Leader: Above 4.30 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 5 contracts · $390K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents a 96% probability that average U.S. gas prices will exceed $4.60 per gallon over a specified period. The high probability reflects current market pricing where contracts for thresholds near $4.44–$4.50 trade close to parity, indicating traders expect prices to remain elevated. Key drivers include crude oil price movements, refinery capacity constraints, seasonal demand patterns, and geopolitical supply disruptions. The main uncertainty hinges on whether crude prices remain above current levels and whether summer demand materializes as expected. Resolution depends on actual average price data from the relevant measurement period, with historical volatility suggesting significant moves remain possible.

Key factors:
- Crude oil price levels: Brent/WTI prices must sustain above thresholds that support $4.60+ retail prices; a decline below $80/barrel would lower probability materially
- Refinery utilization and capacity: Operating levels above 90% support higher prices; planned maintenance outages could tighten supply and increase prices
- Seasonal demand: Summer driving season (May-September) typically raises consumption; a weaker-than-expected season would reduce upward pressure
- Gasoline inventory levels: Weekly EIA data showing inventory builds above 5-year average would suggest downward price pressure
- Dollar strength and geopolitical risk: USD appreciation increases crude import costs' burden on producers; Middle East tensions or supply disruptions could push prices higher

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.30?: Above 4.30 — 97¢ Kalshi $76K (weight 20%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.31?: Above 4.31 — 96¢ Kalshi $73K (weight 19%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.32?: Above 4.32 — 92¢ Kalshi $111K (weight 29%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.33?: Above 4.33 — 67¢ Kalshi $84K (weight 21%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.34?: Above 4.34 — 14¢ Kalshi $45K (weight 12%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-31T19:20:12.385Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20%244.60
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev