55% — Will average **gas prices** be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Above $4.60 at 55% · Kalshi 55% · 13 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The prediction market is pricing a 96% likelihood that U.S. average gasoline prices will exceed $4.44 per gallon by year-end 2026. This high probability reflects current market conditions and expectations about crude oil supply, refinery capacity, and demand through December. The assessment hinges on whether OPEC production decisions, global crude supplies, and domestic fuel consumption remain stable or shift materially. Prices above $4.44 would require sustained demand or constrained supply; prices below would suggest either increased production or demand destruction. The outcome resolves when the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes final average retail gasoline prices for 2026, making this a backward-looking measure rather than a forward prediction of price direction.

Key factors:
- Current U.S. average gasoline price and trend from May 2026 through December, as reported by EIA
- OPEC production levels and announced policy changes affecting global crude oil supply
- Refinery utilization rates and unplanned outages that constrain fuel output
- Seasonal demand patterns and economic activity indicators affecting consumption from June through year-end
- Geopolitical events or supply disruptions that could significantly alter crude availability

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.60 — 55¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 21%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.80 — 49¢ Kalshi $916 (weight 8%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.00 — 36¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 17%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.20 — 30¢ Kalshi $890 (weight 7%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.40 — 21¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 12%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.80 — 18¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 12%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.60 — 17¢ Kalshi $299 (weight 3%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.00 — 12¢ Kalshi $536 (weight 5%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.208Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmax
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20%246.40%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev