62% — Will average **gas prices** be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026 Leader: Above $4.60 at 62% · Kalshi 62% · 13 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 00:26:26 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction asks whether the average U.S. gas price will exceed $6.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, with markets currently assigning a 34% probability to that outcome. The assessment reflects expectations that prices will remain below this threshold over the next six months. Key factors shaping this view include current price levels—typically $2.50–$3.50 per gallon in mid-2026—which would require a substantial spike to reach $6.40, and the seasonal dynamics of fuel markets heading into autumn and winter. Supply disruptions from geopolitical events, unexpected refinery outages, or sharp demand surges could drive prices higher, while inventory levels, OPEC production decisions, and global economic conditions work in the opposite direction. The contract distribution shows traders view higher brackets ($7.00, $6.00) as increasingly unlikely, with most probability mass concentrated in the $4.60–$4.80 range. Crude oil price movements and any major supply shocks over the next six months represent the primary catalysts that would materially shift these odds. Key factors: - Current average retail gas prices are approximately $2.50–$3.50 per gallon; reaching $6.40 requires a 100%+ increase in less than six months - Historical price spikes above $5.00 are typically triggered by major supply disruptions (war, refinery failures, hurricane damage) or rapid demand shocks - Seasonal trends show gas prices often decline into fall/winter as demand softens, working against the $6.40 threshold - Crude oil futures and OPEC production guidance for Q3-Q4 2026 will be primary drivers of market expectations - The contract price distribution shows $4.60–$4.80 as the central probability mass, with only 4¢ on the dollar assigned to $7.00+ outcomes Contracts: - Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.60 — 62¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 31%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.80 — 43¢ Kalshi $911 (weight 9%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.00 — 30¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 22%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.20 — 25¢ Kalshi $817 (weight 8%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.40 — 19¢ Kalshi $117 (weight 1%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.60 — 15¢ Kalshi $319 (weight 3%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.00 — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 16%) - Will average **gas prices** be above $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.80 — 13¢ Kalshi $92 (weight 1%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T00:20:50.815Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "62% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmax Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20%246.40%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev