73% — Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.40 by Dec 31, 2026 Leader: Above $6.20 at 73% · Kalshi 73% · 10 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing in a 93% likelihood that average U.S. gas prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by the end of 2026, with a sharp dropoff in probability at higher thresholds (82% above $4.50, 31% above $7.60). This reflects expectations that prices will remain elevated relative to historical lows but well below 2022 peaks. The primary drivers are crude oil supply constraints, OPEC production decisions, and global demand patterns, offset by potential demand destruction if prices spike or recession pressures emerge. Seasonal factors—summer driving season peaking in June-August—and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve level will influence near-term volatility. The contract structure reveals market consensus clustering around the $4.40–$4.50 range as the most probable outcome, suggesting traders expect prices to stay in a moderate-to-elevated band rather than revert to pre-2022 levels or spike toward crisis pricing. Key factors: - Current U.S. average gas price as of early May 2026 and spot crude oil prices relative to the $4.40 threshold, establishing the baseline for 7-month price averaging - Crude oil production levels from OPEC and non-OPEC producers (U.S., Russia, others) and any announced supply adjustments through December 2026 - Summer 2026 gasoline demand data (June–August driving season) and any recessions or demand-destruction events that would suppress consumption and prices - Geopolitical disruptions to oil transit routes (Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal) or major producing nations that could constrain supply unexpectedly - Strategic Petroleum Reserve refill or drawdown decisions by the U.S. government and their timing, which directly affects fuel availability and pricing pressure Contracts: - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.20 — 73¢ Kalshi $336 (weight 15%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.40 — 59¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 2%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.60 — 45¢ Kalshi $239 (weight 11%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.00 — 30¢ Kalshi $304 (weight 14%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.20 — 24¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.40 — 20¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.80 — 12¢ Kalshi $348 (weight 16%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.60 — 12¢ Kalshi $238 (weight 11%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.646Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmaxca Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20or%20below%20%247.40%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev