61% — Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.40 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Above $6.20 at 61% · Kalshi 61% · 10 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-26 09:42:15 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates traders believe there's roughly a 45% chance average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $6.20 by year-end 2026. Current market pricing suggests traders see prices in the $6.20-$6.80 range as most likely, with higher thresholds ($7.20+) priced significantly lower. Gas prices depend primarily on global crude oil supply and demand dynamics, OPEC production decisions, and geopolitical disruptions, alongside domestic refinery capacity and seasonal summer-to-fall demand patterns. The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy also influences fuel prices through broader economic activity. The primary uncertainty resolver will be actual pump prices reported through the remainder of 2026, particularly how crude oil markets respond to any supply shocks or demand shifts in the coming months. Contract liquidity and volume remain modest, suggesting limited institutional participation relative to larger prediction markets.

Key factors:
- Crude oil prices have traded $70-85/barrel year-to-date; a sustained move above $90 would materially increase likelihood of $7.40+ gas prices
- OPEC+ production cuts and compliance rates directly affect global supply; any production increases or geopolitical disruptions (Middle East, Russia) create upside price pressure
- U.S. refinery utilization and maintenance schedules impact supply; summer 2026 refinery outages historically tighten markets and raise prices
- Federal Reserve rate trajectory influences inflation expectations and economic demand; higher rates typically soften demand and pressure prices downward
- Historical seasonal patterns show gas prices typically decline September-December, which market pricing partially reflects in current contract valuations

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.20 — 61¢ Kalshi $120 (weight 6%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.40 — 51¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.60 — 44¢ Kalshi $633 (weight 31%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.80 — 29¢ Kalshi $440 (weight 22%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.00 — 28¢ Kalshi $766 (weight 38%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.20 — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.40 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.60 — 14¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 3%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-26T09:20:51.538Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "61% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmaxca
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20or%20below%20%247.40%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev