33% — Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.90 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Above $4.90 at 33% · Kalshi 33% · 5 contracts · $1 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Market participants are assigning a 93% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, based on 20 contracts trading on Kalshi. This reflects expectations that fuel costs will remain elevated through December rather than falling sharply. The forecast depends primarily on crude oil supply dynamics, OPEC production decisions, and global demand trends, particularly from China and other major economies. Near-term catalysts include upcoming energy inventory reports, geopolitical developments affecting Middle Eastern production, and macroeconomic data signaling recession risk or demand destruction. Notably, the market assigns only a 6% probability to prices falling below $2.00, suggesting traders view extreme downside scenarios as unlikely.

Key factors:
- Current WTI crude oil price and trend—crude typically drives 50-70% of retail gasoline variation
- OPEC+ production policy decisions, particularly Saudi Arabia's output levels and stated production targets through Q4 2026
- U.S. refinery capacity utilization rates and seasonal maintenance schedules that affect gasoline supply
- Macroeconomic growth expectations and vehicle fuel demand projections relative to inventory levels
- Geopolitical risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, sanctions, or supply disruptions that could compress margins

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.90 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.90 — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.70 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.70 — 30¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 100%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.10 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.10 — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.30 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.30 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.70 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.70 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.463Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmaxfl
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20or%20below%20%244.90%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev