92% — Will average gas prices go above $4.25 by Sep 30, 2026
Leader: Above $4.30 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 7 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 09:34:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 60% probability that the U.S. average gasoline price will exceed $4.20 per gallon by September 30, 2026—roughly 4 weeks away. The current price trajectory and crude oil futures are the primary drivers: prices would need to rise about 5-10% from typical late summer levels to reach this threshold, which depends on global oil supply, refinery capacity utilization, and seasonal demand patterns as summer driving season winds down. The most immediate catalyst is weekly EIA petroleum inventory reports and any geopolitical disruptions to crude supply; additionally, hurricane season activity could affect Gulf Coast refining capacity through early October. The contract ladder (ranging from $4.20 to $4.40) shows markets treating prices in the $4.20–$4.30 range as reasonably probable but not highly likely.

Key factors:
- Current U.S. average gas price relative to the $4.20 threshold as of early September 2026, with typical late-summer pricing patterns
- WTI crude futures contract prices and global supply/demand fundamentals, particularly OPEC production decisions and geopolitical risk
- U.S. refinery utilization rates and any unplanned outages that would tighten supply in the final four weeks of September
- Hurricane season impacts on Gulf of Mexico production and coastal refining infrastructure through month-end
- Seasonal demand decline as Labor Day passes and autumn driving patterns typically reduce consumption pressure

Contracts:
- Will average gas prices go above $4.30 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.30 — 92¢ Kalshi $551 (weight 47%)
- Will average gas prices go above $4.35 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.35 — 79¢ Kalshi $278 (weight 24%)
- Will average gas prices go above $4.40 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.40 — 54¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 2%)
- Will average gas prices go above $4.45 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.45 — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average gas prices go above $4.50 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.50 — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average gas prices go above $4.60 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.60 — 15¢ Kalshi $217 (weight 19%)
- Will average gas prices go above $4.55 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.55 — 15¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 9%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-11T13:20:52.867Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmaxm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20gas%20prices%20go%20above%20%244.25%20by%20Sep%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev