50% — Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026 Leader: Above $4.80 at 50% · Kalshi 50% · 7 contracts · $287 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 08:48:47 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This reflects a 30% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.80 per gallon by the end of 2026. Currently, prices are trading well below this threshold, so the outcome depends primarily on future crude oil supply disruptions, refinery capacity changes, and global demand shifts. The contract chain shows declining probabilities for progressively higher price levels, suggesting markets view extreme price spikes as unlikely but not impossible. Key drivers include OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical stability in major oil-producing regions, and U.S. inventory levels. Winter demand patterns (typically peaking in the final quarter) and any major supply disruptions between now and December 31 would be the primary catalysts that could either elevate or reduce the likelihood of exceeding $4.80. Key factors: - Current average U.S. gas prices are approximately $2.80-$3.00 per gallon; reaching $4.80 would require a 60-70% price increase in roughly five months - OPEC+ production policy decisions scheduled through 2026 will directly influence crude supply and downstream retail pricing - Winter heating demand typically raises fuel costs in Q4, but the magnitude of any seasonal increase would need to be substantial to hit $4.80 - Geopolitical events affecting major oil-producing regions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) represent the highest-probability catalyst for significant price acceleration - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels and refinery utilization rates will constrain upside price potential absent a major supply shock Contracts: - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.80 — 50¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 3%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.00 — 30¢ Kalshi $147 (weight 51%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.20 — 27¢ Kalshi $122 (weight 43%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.40 — 16¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 3%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.60 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.80 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.00 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T08:20:51.455Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmaxny Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20or%20below%20%244.20%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev