23% — Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Above $4.20 at 23% · Kalshi 23% · 5 contracts · $296 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-25 10:13:53 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract reflects the likelihood that average US gasoline prices will exceed $4.20 per gallon by year-end 2026. Currently assigned 32% probability, this level sits below historical norms and reflects expectations of stable or declining fuel costs over the next five months. Energy prices are primarily driven by crude oil supply dynamics, with factors including geopolitical tensions affecting production, OPEC+ decisions on output levels, and US refinery capacity. Seasonal patterns matter significantly—summer driving demand typically peaks in June-July before declining into fall, which historically puts downward pressure on prices through year-end. The contract structure itself suggests low probability of extreme price scenarios ($4.60+), with those outcomes trading at 3-6 cents. Resolution hinges on crude oil market movements and any supply shocks between now and December, which remain difficult to predict with precision.

Key factors:
- Crude oil futures trading patterns and OPEC+ production policy through Q4 2026, which directly transmit to pump prices
- Seasonal demand cycle effects—fuel consumption typically declines post-summer, creating natural price headwinds into year-end
- Current spot prices relative to the $4.20 threshold and recent trend direction (rising vs. stable vs. falling)
- Refinery maintenance schedules and capacity constraints in H2 2026, which influence supply available to markets
- Geopolitical risks to production (Middle East tensions, sanctions regimes) that could create supply-side shocks

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.20 — 23¢ Kalshi $72 (weight 24%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.40 — 7¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 5%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.60 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.80 — 3¢ Kalshi $127 (weight 43%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.40 — 3¢ Kalshi $82 (weight 28%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-25T08:20:50.104Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmaxtx
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20or%20below%20%244.00%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev