35% — Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Above $4.20 at 35% · Kalshi 35% · 5 contracts · $135 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently assign a 93% probability that U.S. average gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, based on aggregated predictions across 20 contracts. The high probability reflects expectations that global oil supply constraints, geopolitical tensions, or seasonal demand will keep fuel prices elevated through the final months of the year. The market assigns much lower odds to extreme scenarios—only 31% chance prices exceed $7.60, and just 6% probability they fall below $2.00. Resolution depends primarily on crude oil prices, refinery utilization rates, and whether major supply disruptions occur before December 31. Current sentiment suggests markets expect prices to remain in a $4.40–$4.50 range rather than spike significantly higher or crash lower. Economic growth rates and Federal Reserve policy will influence demand indirectly through their effect on overall fuel consumption.

Key factors:
- Current U.S. average gasoline prices as of May 2026 serve as the baseline; any sustained movement below $4.40 would require a supply glut or demand collapse
- West Texas Intermediate crude oil price momentum is the primary driver; each $10/barrel move typically shifts retail prices by roughly $0.25–$0.35 per gallon
- Refinery maintenance schedules and unplanned outages between May and December 2026 directly affect supply and price volatility
- Seasonal demand patterns peak in summer (June–August) then decline in fall; lower-volatility winter demand in Q4 could pull prices downward
- No current market assigns >66% probability to prices above $6.80, indicating traders view extreme price spikes as low-probability events

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.20 — 35¢ Kalshi $45 (weight 33%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.00 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.80 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.40 — 5¢ Kalshi $90 (weight 67%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.20 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:48.732Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmaxtx
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20or%20below%20%244.00%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev