23% — Will average **gas prices** be below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Below $3.60 at 23% · Kalshi 23% · 6 contracts · $399 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-26 10:08:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently assign a 94% probability that U.S. average retail gasoline prices will settle below $3.80 per gallon by year-end 2026. This reflects expectations that crude oil prices will remain moderate and refinery capacity will sustain adequate supply through December. The primary driver of this high probability is that $3.80 sits well above recent historical norms—the past five years show prices below this threshold most of the time. Key uncertainties include OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events affecting oil supply, refinery disruptions, and demand fluctuations tied to economic activity. The market's confidence weakens substantially at lower thresholds: contracts priced at 61¢ for below-$3.40 and 26¢ for below-$3.00 suggest meaningful downside risk is already priced in. Real-time catalyst events—such as major refinery outages, international supply shocks, or shifts in Fed policy affecting the dollar and crude demand—could move these probabilities notably. Resolution depends on final-month price data through December 31, 2026.

Key factors:
- OPEC+ production policy decisions and announcements through Q4 2026, which directly influence global crude oil supply and pricing
- Refinery operating rates and unplanned outages in the U.S., affecting gasoline processing capacity and regional price spreads
- Geopolitical events or supply disruptions in major oil-producing regions that could tighten or loosen global crude markets
- U.S. dollar strength relative to other currencies, which inversely affects crude oil prices priced in dollars and import competitiveness
- Economic growth expectations and fuel demand forecasts, particularly for driving season demand in summer and early autumn months

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.60 — 23¢ Kalshi $278 (weight 70%)
- Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.20 — 13¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 8%)
- Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.40 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.00 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be below $2.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.80 — 4¢ Kalshi $87 (weight 22%)
- Will average **gas prices** be below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.60 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-26T09:20:59.442Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20below%20%243.80%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev