51% — Will average **gas prices** be below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Below $3.40 at 51% · Kalshi 51% · 6 contracts · $912 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Prediction markets are pricing a 93% chance that average U.S. gas prices will exceed $4.40 by year-end 2026, with declining probabilities at higher thresholds ($4.50 at 82%, $6.80 at 66%). This reflects expectations that prices will remain elevated through December, driven primarily by global crude oil supply dynamics and seasonal demand patterns. The current market view suggests prices are unlikely to fall below $3.80, though contracts show non-trivial probability mass above $7.60 (31%) and below $2.00 (6%), indicating tail-risk positioning. Resolution depends on OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical stability in key oil regions, and U.S. refinery capacity—factors that typically shift between now and Q4 2026. The sharp probability cliff between the $4.40 and $4.50 thresholds suggests this range represents the market's highest-confidence prediction band.

Key factors:
- Current U.S. average gas price relative to $4.40 threshold and trend direction over past 3 months
- OPEC+ oil production quotas and compliance rates announced through 2026, particularly decisions in Q2-Q3
- Geopolitical events affecting Middle Eastern crude supply or shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz
- U.S. refinery utilization rates and any announced maintenance or outage schedules for H2 2026
- Historical seasonal patterns showing summer-to-fall price movements and their deviation from current implied volatility

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.40 — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.20 — 42¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 1%)
- Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.60 — 39¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.00 — 30¢ Kalshi $898 (weight 99%)
- Will average **gas prices** be below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.80 — 17¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%)
- Will average **gas prices** be below $2.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.80 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.117Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20below%20%243.80%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev