10% — Will average **gas prices** be above or below $3.90 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Below $4.10 at 10% · Kalshi 10% · 3 contracts · $96 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 15% probability that average U.S. gas prices will remain below $3.90 through the end of 2026. The low probability reflects a forecast heavily weighted toward prices staying higher than this threshold over the next eight months. Current price expectations lean firmly upward, as evidenced by the 93-cent contract pricing for prices above $4.40—suggesting the market sees substantial likelihood of prices exceeding that level. Price movements would depend on crude oil supply disruptions, OPEC+ production decisions, global demand shifts, and U.S. refinery capacity. The most immediate driver will be oil futures and weekly petroleum inventory reports from the EIA, which directly influence short-term pump prices. A significant recession, energy surplus, or major geopolitical de-escalation could push prices lower toward the sub-$3.90 target, while supply constraints or demand acceleration would sustain higher levels.

Key factors:
- Global crude oil production and OPEC+ output decisions through December 2026
- U.S. refinery utilization rates and any unplanned maintenance outages affecting fuel supply
- Macroeconomic conditions affecting transportation fuel demand, particularly recession risk or industrial slowdown
- Historical price comparison: average U.S. gas was approximately $3.50-3.60 in early 2026, requiring a meaningful decline to reach below $3.90
- Weekly EIA petroleum inventory reports and crude oil futures pricing as near-term price discovery mechanisms

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $4.10 — 10¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 7%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.80 — 8¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 59%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $4.00 — 3¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 34%)

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasminca
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20or%20below%20%243.90%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev