5% — Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Below $2.60 at 5% · Kalshi 5% · 2 contracts · $4 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing in an 93% probability that average US gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026. This reflects expectations about crude oil supplies, refinery capacity, and global demand over the next eight months. The wide spread of contracts—ranging from expectations below $2.00 to above $7.60—indicates substantial uncertainty about potential scenarios. Current sentiment leans toward elevated prices, though this could shift based on OPEC production decisions, hurricane impacts on Gulf Coast refineries, global economic growth, and geopolitical developments. The EIA's weekly petroleum reports and monthly inventory data will provide crucial signals about supply-demand dynamics. Seasonal summer driving demand and potential supply disruptions represent the most immediate price drivers through Q3 2026.

Key factors:
- OPEC+ production policy decisions and their compliance rates, which directly influence global crude supplies available to US refineries
- Current crude oil prices relative to historical levels; WTI trading above $70-75/barrel would support gas prices near or above $4.40
- Refinery utilization rates and maintenance schedules; unplanned outages or seasonal maintenance affect gasoline production volumes
- US driving demand patterns, particularly seasonal summer peak (Memorial Day through Labor Day) which typically supports higher prices
- Hurricane season (June-November 2026) and potential disruptions to Gulf Coast refining and crude production infrastructure

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.60 — 5¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 100%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.40 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.907Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasminfl
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20or%20below%20%242.40%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev