27% — Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Below $2.60 at 27% · Kalshi 27% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-28 14:09:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects a 22% chance that average U.S. gasoline prices will remain below $2.60 per gallon through the end of 2026. The contract structure shows traders expect prices more likely to exceed $2.60 than stay below it, with progressively lower odds for lower thresholds. Current pricing is driven by global crude oil supply expectations, OPEC+ production decisions, seasonal refining patterns, and potential geopolitical disruptions. The biggest near-term catalyst is OPEC+ meeting outcomes and monthly inventory data releases, which typically move energy markets sharply. Additional uncertainty stems from hurricane season impacts on Gulf refining capacity, Chinese economic growth influencing demand, and any shifts in U.S. shale production efficiency. With five months remaining until year-end, traders are pricing in a likely scenario where supply constraints or demand recovery push prices above current levels.

Key factors:
- Current U.S. gasoline spot prices relative to $2.60 threshold and recent 12-month trading range
- OPEC+ production policy decisions and their enforcement, particularly regarding oil supply tightening through year-end
- Hurricane season (June–November) risk to U.S. Gulf Coast refining capacity and distribution infrastructure
- Crude oil inventory levels and refining margins, which directly determine retail gas price floors
- Global demand signals from China, Europe, and other major economies affecting crude oil pricing

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.60 — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.50 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.50 — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.40 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.30 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.30 — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-28T13:21:11.432Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasminfl
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20or%20below%20%242.40%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev