5% — Will average gas prices go below $3.70 by Sep 30, 2026
Kalshi 5% · 1 contracts · $299 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 08:48:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that markets assess a 47% chance average U.S. gas prices will fall below $3.70 per gallon by September 30, 2026. The current market lean reflects uncertainty about near-term crude oil supply, global demand signals, and refinery capacity through quarter-end. Oil prices, geopolitical events affecting production, and seasonal demand patterns are primary drivers—prices below $3.70 would require either sustained crude weakness or significant demand softening. The resolution depends on actual pump prices reported through September, with weekly data releases and any major supply disruptions serving as key catalysts for repricing. The 18¢ trading price on this specific contract and modest trading volume suggest limited liquidity around this particular threshold compared to nearby brackets like $3.80 (23¢, higher volume).

Key factors:
- Crude oil prices must remain under pressure to support sub-$3.70 retail averages; WTI currently above $70/bbl suggests limited margin
- Seasonal factors: late September typically shows declining demand as summer driving season ends, which could aid price declines
- Refinery maintenance schedules and any unexpected outages or supply disruptions over the next 27 days could shift the outcome significantly
- The $3.70 threshold sits between the $3.80 (23% implied probability) and $3.60 (12%) brackets, indicating markets see meaningful spread around this level
- Trading volume is extremely light ($3/day on this contract), suggesting low conviction or pricing efficiency concerns among active participants

Contracts:
- Will average gas prices go below $4.00 by Sep 30, 2026?: Below $4.00 — 5¢ Kalshi $299 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-11T13:20:52.867Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasminm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20gas%20prices%20go%20below%20%243.70%20by%20Sep%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev