14% — Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.20 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Below $2.30 at 14% · Kalshi 14% · 6 contracts · $128 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 93% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, with declining probabilities for higher thresholds ($4.50 at 82%, $7.60 at 31%). This reflects expectations that crude oil prices and refining conditions will remain elevated through the year. The probability is primarily driven by current energy markets, geopolitical supply risks, and seasonal demand patterns. Key drivers of upward pressure include OPEC production decisions, Middle East tensions, and summer driving season demand spikes; downward pressure comes from potential recession signals, increased U.S. shale production, or strategic petroleum reserve releases. The most significant catalyst will be quarterly crude oil price movements and OPEC+ production meetings scheduled throughout 2026, which typically influence gasoline futures and spot prices within weeks.

Key factors:
- Current crude oil futures prices and the crude-to-gasoline price spread as of May 2026
- OPEC+ production quotas and announced supply adjustments for H2 2026
- U.S. inventory levels and refinery utilization rates relative to seasonal norms
- Probability falls sharply at $4.50 (82%) and drops to 31% at $7.60, suggesting market consensus clusters around $4.40-$4.50 range
- Trading volume concentration ($1,280 in 24h volume on $4.40 contract vs. lower volumes on extreme thresholds) indicates core market conviction around mid-range outcomes

Contracts:
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.30 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.30 — 14¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 24%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.20 — 7¢ Kalshi $98 (weight 76%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.00 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.10 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.10 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $1.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $1.80 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will average **gas prices** be above or below $1.90 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $1.90 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.491Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aaagasmintx
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20**gas%20prices**%20be%20above%20or%20below%20%242.20%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev