49% — ABA League
Leader: Winner: Partizan Mozzart Bet at 49% · Polymarket 49% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations for which team will win the ABA League, a top professional basketball competition in the Balkans. The 44% aggregate figure masks a significant divergence between markets: Kalshi shows minimal activity at 3%, while Polymarket's 14 contracts cluster around 46%, with Mega, FMP, Budućnost, and Zadar all priced nearly identically. The ABA League season typically concludes in spring, with playoffs and finals determining the champion. Resolution depends on actual tournament outcomes and contract specifications across venues. Low trading volumes on most contracts suggest limited recent interest, which can make probabilities less reliable as real-time indicators of informed opinion.

Key factors:
- Polymarket's 14 contracts drive the aggregated probability, while Kalshi's single contract at 3% has minimal influence on the overall figure
- Four separate winner contracts on Polymarket are priced within 1 percentage point (46-47¢), suggesting either uncertainty between teams or incomplete market differentiation
- Trading volume is extremely low across most contracts ($0-17 in 24 hours), indicating thin liquidity that may not reflect sustained informed trading
- Kalshi and Polymarket's 43-percentage-point gap indicates either different contract definitions, customer bases, or information sets between the two venues
- The near-identical pricing of multiple distinct team outcomes suggests traders may be arbitraging across contracts rather than making fundamental probability assessments

Contracts:
- ABA League: Winner: Partizan Mozzart Bet — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- ABA League: Winner: Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- ABA League: Winner: U-BT Cluj-Napoca — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- ABA League: Winner: Dubai Basketball — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- ABA League: Winner: Cedevita Olimpija — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- ABA League: Winner: Bosna BH Telecom — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- ABA League: Winner: Budućnost VOLI — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- ABA League: Winner: Spartak Office Shoes — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aba-league
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=ABA%20League
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev