91% — Will Airbnb Inc. report above 155 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026 Leader: Above 140 million at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 00:23:58 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing a 93% probability that Airbnb will report above 138 million nights and experiences booked in Q3 2026, with declining confidence at higher thresholds (62% above 146 million). This reflects expectations for typical seasonal strength in the third quarter, when summer travel peaks in Northern Hemisphere markets. The high baseline confidence suggests traders expect Airbnb's booking trends to continue at or near recent levels. Resolution depends on Airbnb's Q3 2026 earnings report, likely due in late October or early November 2026. Key uncertainty centers on macro travel demand, competitive pressure from alternative platforms, and any disruptions to leisure or business travel patterns between now and quarter-end. The widening spread across thresholds indicates genuine disagreement about how far above 138 million actual bookings will reach. Key factors: - Q3 historically represents peak travel season in developed markets, supporting higher booking volumes than Q1 or Q4 - Current contract spread (93% at 138M down to 62% at 146M) suggests a median forecast around 142-144 million nights, implying modest growth or stability from recent quarters - Airbnb's reported Q2 2026 result and guidance would directly influence current pricing; any recent guidance miss or booking slowdown would lower these probabilities - Macroeconomic conditions affecting discretionary travel spending between now and September 2026 will materially impact actual booking volumes - Resolution date is Airbnb's official Q3 2026 earnings announcement, expected late October or November 2026 Contracts: - Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 140 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 140 million — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 138 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 138 million — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 142 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 142 million — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 144 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 144 million — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 148 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 148 million — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 146 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 146 million — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 150 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 150 million — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:51.117Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/abnb Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Airbnb%20Inc.%20report%20above%20155%20million%20nights%20%26%20experiences%20booked%20in%20Q1%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev