95% — Will Airbnb Inc. report above 155 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026 Leader: Above 141 million at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 9 contracts · $10 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:53 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This 93% probability indicates traders believe Airbnb will report more than 150 million nights and experiences booked in Q1 2026, with only a 7% chance of reporting 150 million or fewer. The high confidence reflects Airbnb's consistent historical booking volumes and the platform's recovery trajectory post-pandemic. However, the probability hinges on two competing dynamics: seasonal strength in Q1 travel demand typically supports higher bookings, while macroeconomic pressures on consumer spending could dampen growth. The resolution depends entirely on Airbnb's official Q1 2026 earnings report, expected in late April or early May 2026, which will provide the definitive booking volume figure. Until that disclosure, traders are pricing in the base case that current booking trends continue without significant market disruption. Key factors: - Airbnb's Q1 2023-2025 booking volumes exceeded 150 million nights in most periods, establishing a historical baseline for performance - Q1 typically sees elevated travel demand due to spring break and Easter holiday seasonality, structurally supporting higher booking volumes - Consumer discretionary spending trends and global macroeconomic conditions in early 2026 will determine whether booking growth accelerates, stagnates, or contracts - The probability spread (93% vs. 7%) suggests material but not overwhelming uncertainty, implying traders see downside risk from economic weakness but not as the base case - The runner-up contract at 54% (above 155 million) reflects meaningful optionality that booking volumes could fall between 150-155 million, indicating tighter margins than the headline probability suggests Contracts: - Will Airbnb Inc. report above 141 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?: Above 141 million — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report above 144 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?: Above 144 million — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report above 145 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?: Above 145 million — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report above 146 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?: Above 146 million — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report above 147 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?: Above 147 million — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report above 148 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?: Above 148 million — 32¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 53%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report above 149 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?: Above 149 million — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Airbnb Inc. report above 150 million nights & seats booked in Q2 2026?: Above 150 million — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.962Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/abnb Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Airbnb%20Inc.%20report%20above%20155%20million%20nights%20%26%20experiences%20booked%20in%20Q1%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev