79% — Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 565 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026
Leader: Above 565 million at 79% · Kalshi 79% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 08:51:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing in slightly better-than-even odds that Airbnb will report at least 565 million nights and experiences booked in fiscal 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about post-pandemic travel demand sustainability and Airbnb's ability to grow bookings amid potential economic headwinds and increased competition in the short-term rental market. The contract pricing suggests meaningful probability distributed across higher thresholds (570M, 575M, 580M), indicating traders see material upside scenarios but view anything above 580 million as unlikely. Resolution depends on Airbnb's fiscal 2026 earnings report, typically released in early 2027, which will provide definitive booking volume data. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions affecting leisure and business travel, regulatory changes in major markets, and Airbnb's success in expanding international bookings and experiences revenue.

Key factors:
- Airbnb's 2025 year-to-date booking trends and guidance for remaining fiscal 2026 months
- Macro indicators: consumer spending patterns, employment levels, and travel spending forecasts through end of fiscal 2026
- Regulatory developments in major markets (Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific) affecting platform availability and pricing
- Competitive pressure and market share shifts from traditional hotels and alternative platforms
- Airbnb's historical growth rate (565M would represent ~15% growth from 2025 if prior year was ~490M)

Contracts:
- Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 565 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 565 million — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 570 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 570 million — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 575 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 575 million — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 580 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 580 million — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 585 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 585 million — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 590 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 590 million — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 595 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 595 million — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 600 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 600 million — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T08:20:50.610Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "79% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/abnba
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Airbnb%20Inc.%20report%20Above%20565%20million%20nights%20%26%20experiences%20booked%20in%20fiscal%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev