31% — Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-1.5)
Polymarket 31% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-04 01:42:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This market represents the probability that CS Cienciano will lose to Academia Puerto Cabello by more than 1.5 goals in an upcoming match. At 32%, the current odds suggest this is viewed as a relatively unlikely outcome, though not negligible. The probability reflects differing team strengths, recent form, and home-field advantage. Factors pushing the probability higher would include Cienciano's defensive vulnerabilities or Academia's recent offensive performance; factors lowering it would be Cienciano establishing control through possession or Academia's defensive lapses. The key catalyst is the scheduled match itself, which will definitively resolve whether Cienciano loses by 2+ goals. The modest trading volume across venues ($31 24-hour volume on the direct contract) and the 3-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggest limited liquidity and some residual disagreement among market participants on the precise probability.

Key factors:
- CS Cienciano's current league position, recent goal differential, and away-match performance history versus Academia Puerto Cabello
- Academia Puerto Cabello's home-field record and recent offensive output, particularly in matches against stronger opponents
- Head-to-head historical results between the two teams and whether either has a pattern of large-margin victories or defeats
- Injury status, suspensions, or roster changes for key players on either team that would affect defensive or attacking capability
- Market liquidity and contract volume remain low relative to higher-traffic sports betting markets, suggesting limited professional arbitrage activity

Contracts:
- Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Both Teams to Score — 54¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5) — 17¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 1.5 — 74¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 4.5 — 12¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-1.5) — 19¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 3.5 — 26¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 2.5 — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-2.5) — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-markets-cs
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Academia%20Puerto%20Cabello%20vs.%20CS%20Cienciano%20-%20More%20Markets%3A%20CS%20Cienciano%20(-1.5)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev