8% — Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice Kalshi 8% · 9 contracts · $123 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:59 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 7% chance that Ryan Gosling will be cast in a new Miami Vice film. The probability reflects the current lack of confirmed casting information for any such project. Two primary factors shape this assessment: whether a Miami Vice remake or reboot is formally greenlit by a studio and moving through active casting, and whether Gosling—who has a selective approach to film roles—would be interested in and available for the project. The single biggest catalyst would be official studio announcement of a Miami Vice project in active development with a confirmed director and timeline, which would clarify whether casting discussions have begun. Without such confirmation, the market reflects the baseline uncertainty of predicting any specific actor's involvement in a hypothetical future film. Key factors: - No confirmed Miami Vice remake or reboot project has been publicly announced as of May 2026 - Gosling typically commits to 1-2 films annually and maintains selective project choices - An official studio greenlight with director attached would be required to make casting discussions material and observable - Gosling's recent filmography and stated preferences would need to align with the tone and creative vision of any new Miami Vice project - Previous Miami Vice adaptations and reboots have faced production delays or cancellations, affecting baseline probability of the project occurring at all Contracts: - Will Glen Powell be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Glen Powell — 21¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 65%) - Will Miles Teller be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Miles Teller — 18¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 35%) - Will Garrett Hedlund be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Garrett Hedlund — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jake Gyllenhaal be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Jake Gyllenhaal — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Oscar Isaac be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Oscar Isaac — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Richard Madden be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Richard Madden — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Ryan Gosling — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Taylor Kitsch be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Taylor Kitsch — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.259Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/actorsonnycrockett Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ryan%20Gosling%20be%20casted%20in%20the%20next%20Miami%20Vice Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev