87% — ADP employment change in Nov 2026
Leader: Above -25000 at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 19 contracts · $201 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:20:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing an extremely high probability that ADP employment changes in November 2026 will remain above -25,000 jobs—meaning essentially flat or positive job growth rather than net losses. This reflects current expectations for labor market resilience. The probability level is driven primarily by baseline economic forecasts showing continued modest hiring, though it could shift if recession indicators or deteriorating leading employment metrics emerge between now and November. The actual ADP employment report for November 2026, typically released in early December, will directly resolve this outcome. Markets assign much lower confidence to stronger hiring scenarios (above 75,000 or 100,000 jobs), suggesting consensus expectations are for tepid rather than robust job creation.

Key factors:
- ADP employment change outcomes for August through October 2026 will establish the trajectory; a series of weak months could reduce confidence in positive November readings
- Initial jobless claims and continuing claims data through fall 2026 will signal labor market tightness; rising claims would pressurize the current high probability downward
- ISM manufacturing and services employment indices leading into November serve as early signals of hiring momentum in the final months of the quarter
- GDP growth forecasts and Fed policy expectations through summer and fall 2026 will shape whether labor market softening is priced into employment numbers
- Historical volatility in ADP payroll reports suggests meaningful forecast uncertainty exists despite current market pricing at 95 percent

Contracts:
- ADP employment change in Nov 2026?: Above -25000 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ADP employment change in Oct 2026?: Above -25000 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ADP employment change in Sep 2026?: Above -25000 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ADP employment change in Oct 2026?: Above 0 — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ADP employment change in Nov 2026?: Above 0 — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ADP employment change in Oct 2026?: Above 25000 — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ADP employment change in Sep 2026?: Above 0 — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ADP employment change in Nov 2026?: Above 25000 — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/adp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=ADP%20employment%20change%20in%20Nov%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev