18% — Will Nigeria win the Africa Cup of Nations
Kalshi 18% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 11:27:08 UTC

Why this matters:
This 13% probability reflects market expectations that Nigeria will win the Africa Cup of Nations tournament. The market views Nigeria as a clear underdog compared to Morocco (21%) and Ghana (19%), suggesting traders believe other nations have stronger current rosters or form. Nigeria's probability could shift based on team performance in qualifying matches, injury updates to key players, or changes in coaching staff before the tournament. The tournament itself will ultimately resolve this contract when matches are played and a winner is crowned. Traders appear to be pricing in recent competitive trends across African football, though the relatively low trading volume indicates limited liquidity in these contracts and potential uncertainty in market pricing.

Key factors:
- Nigeria's current FIFA ranking and recent tournament performance compared to Morocco and Ghana
- Injury status and availability of Nigeria's key players leading up to the tournament
- Nigeria's qualifying round results and goal differential if tournament qualification is still pending
- Historical head-to-head records between Nigeria and other top African nations in recent years
- Market pricing anomalies—Nigeria at 3¢ while Ghana is 19¢ suggests either strong confidence in Nigeria's weakness or thin liquidity affecting contract valuations

Contracts:
- Will Cameroon win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Cameroon — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Congo DR win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Congo DR — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Egypt win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Egypt — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Ghana win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Ghana — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Morocco win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Morocco — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Nigeria win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Nigeria — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Senegal win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Senegal — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T11:20:50.380Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/afcon
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Nigeria%20win%20the%20Africa%20Cup%20of%20Nations
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev