87% — Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) win at least 36 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election Leader: 36 or more at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 5 contracts · $66 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 01:46:09 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are assigning an 88% probability that Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) will secure at least 36 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election. This reflects strong polling performance for the party in that eastern German state, where it has consistently polled above 30% in recent surveys. The probability hinges on whether AfD maintains its current regional support levels through election day and whether polling accuracy holds. The main uncertainty involves potential coalition dynamics, campaign shifts, or changes in voter sentiment in the final months before voting. The election outcome will be determined on the scheduled Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election date, which will provide definitive seat counts and resolve all related contracts. Contract pricing suggests increasing uncertainty at higher seat thresholds—44+ seats trade at only 30%, indicating consensus around a narrower mid-range outcome. Key factors: - AfD has consistently polled above 30% in Saxony-Anhalt, making 36+ seats (typically 10-12% of the 97-seat chamber) a low threshold relative to recent vote share - The 88% probability for 36+ seats versus 59% for 40+ seats indicates markets expect the party to land in the 36-39 seat range rather than exceed 42 seats - Regional polling methodology and turnout assumptions carry material risk; eastern German elections show different dynamics than national polls - Coalition formation rules and potential party alliances could affect whether AfD seat count translates to actual legislative influence - The scheduled Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election date is the sole resolution event; no interim data releases will clarify the outcome before votes are cast Contracts: - Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) win at least 36 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election?: 36 or more — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) win at least 38 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election?: 38 or more — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) win at least 40 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election?: 40 or more — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) win at least 42 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election?: 42 or more — 39¢ Kalshi $66 (weight 100%) - Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) win at least 44 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election?: 44 or more — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T01:20:51.751Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/afdsachsen Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alternative%20for%20Germany%20(AfD)%20win%20at%20least%2036%20seats%20in%20the%202026%20Saxony-Anhalt%20Landtag%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev