49% — Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers winner Kalshi 49% · 18 contracts · $599 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-14 07:43:31 UTC Why this matters: This 47% probability indicates that Carlton Blues are considered roughly even-odds favorites to defeat Fremantle Dockers in their upcoming match. The market assessment reflects both teams' current form, recent matchup history, and squad availability heading into the fixture. Carlton's probability could move higher if key players return from injury or if recent momentum shifts in their favor; conversely, it could decline if Fremantle demonstrates stronger preparation or if Carlton faces unexpected absences. The outcome will be definitively resolved when the match concludes. Market pricing appears influenced by limited trading volume on this specific matchup, with only $294 in 24-hour volume across related contracts, suggesting relatively thin liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads than high-volume markets. Key factors: - Recent head-to-head record and performance differential between Carlton and Fremantle in the current season - Player availability and injury status for both teams leading up to the fixture date - Home-ground advantage and venue-specific performance patterns for each team - Current ladder position and win-loss momentum entering the match - Trading volume and liquidity on this contract versus related AFL fixtures, which may indicate information gaps or market efficiency constraints Contracts: - Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power winner?: Port Adelaide Power — 6¢ Kalshi $277 (weight 46%) - GWS Giants vs Essendon Bombers winner?: GWS Giants — 87¢ Kalshi $61 (weight 10%) - GWS Giants vs Essendon Bombers winner?: Essendon Bombers — 10¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 9%) - Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles winner?: West Coast Eagles — 9¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 7%) - Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns winner?: Western Bulldogs — 45¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 5%) - Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers winner?: Richmond Tigers — 6¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 4%) - St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats winner?: St Kilda Saints — 34¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 4%) - Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos winner?: Melbourne Demons — 64¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 4%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-14T07:20:49.241Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aflgame Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Carlton%20Blues%20vs%20Fremantle%20Dockers%20winner Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev