38% — Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers winner
Kalshi 47% · 16 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 19:24:12 UTC

Why this matters:
This 47% probability indicates that Carlton Blues are considered roughly even-odds favorites to defeat Fremantle Dockers in their upcoming match. The market assessment reflects both teams' current form, recent matchup history, and squad availability heading into the fixture. Carlton's probability could move higher if key players return from injury or if recent momentum shifts in their favor; conversely, it could decline if Fremantle demonstrates stronger preparation or if Carlton faces unexpected absences. The outcome will be definitively resolved when the match concludes. Market pricing appears influenced by limited trading volume on this specific matchup, with only $294 in 24-hour volume across related contracts, suggesting relatively thin liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads than high-volume markets.

Key factors:
- Recent head-to-head record and performance differential between Carlton and Fremantle in the current season
- Player availability and injury status for both teams leading up to the fixture date
- Home-ground advantage and venue-specific performance patterns for each team
- Current ladder position and win-loss momentum entering the match
- Trading volume and liquidity on this contract versus related AFL fixtures, which may indicate information gaps or market efficiency constraints

Contracts:
- Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions winner?: Carlton Blues — 12¢ Kalshi $547 (weight 17%)
- West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons winner?: West Coast Eagles — 8¢ Kalshi $262 (weight 15%)
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers winner?: Fremantle Dockers — 51¢ Kalshi $154 (weight 14%)
- Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos winner?: Sydney Swans — 72¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 13%)
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers winner?: Hawthorn Hawks — 43¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 10%)
- Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos winner?: North Melbourne Kangaroos — 22¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 8%)
- Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide Power winner?: Western Bulldogs — 48¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 5%)
- Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions winner?: Brisbane Lions — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 2%)
- ... and 8 more

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aflgame
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Carlton%20Blues%20vs%20Fremantle%20Dockers%20winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev