12% — Will Bola Tinubu leave office next in this set
Kalshi 12% · 5 contracts · $16 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:34 UTC

Why this matters:
This 20% probability represents the market's assessment that Nigerian President Bola Tinubu will be the next person to leave office among a specific set of political figures. The relatively low probability suggests markets view his departure as unlikely in the near term. Key factors influencing this estimate include Tinubu's recent inauguration in May 2023, giving him a normal full term ahead, and the stability of Nigeria's current political institutions. The probability would increase if significant health concerns emerged, major political instability occurred, or constitutional crises threatened his presidency. Resolution depends on whether Tinubu completes his term or exits office before other tracked figures, with the most immediate comparison being other sitting leaders' political fortunes.

Key factors:
- Tinubu took office in May 2023 and constitutionally serves until May 2027, providing structural stability relative to other tracked figures
- Nigeria's political system has seen peaceful transfers of power recently, suggesting institutional continuity absent major shocks
- Tinubu faced health speculation during his campaign and early presidency; any documented medical emergencies would likely move markets upward
- Economic conditions in Nigeria, particularly inflation and currency pressures, could destabilize his government if they severely worsen
- The baseline comparison set matters: if other figures face imminent political challenges, Tinubu's relative probability would shift even without changes to his own circumstances

Contracts:
- Will Félix Tshisekedi leave office next in this set?: Félix Tshisekedi — 4¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 63%)
- Will William Ruto leave office next in this set?: William Ruto — 5¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 38%)
- Will Bola Tinubu leave office next in this set?: Bola Tinubu — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Emmerson Mnangagwa leave office next in this set?: Emmerson Mnangagwa — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will John Mahama leave office next in this set?: John Mahama — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.066Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/africaleaderout
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bola%20Tinubu%20leave%20office%20next%20in%20this%20set
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev