18% — Will USAID be eliminated
Kalshi 18% · 3 contracts · $2 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:22:03 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) will be formally eliminated or cease operations. At 19%, the market suggests elimination is possible but not the central expectation. Key drivers include ongoing political discussions about foreign aid spending and administrative restructuring proposals. The primary uncertainty centers on legislative action and executive policy decisions that would be required to dismantle the agency. Congressional appropriations cycles and statements from relevant officials would provide the most direct resolution signals. The current level reflects political debate intensity balanced against institutional inertia and the practical complexity of eliminating a large federal agency.

Key factors:
- Congressional legislation would be required to formally eliminate USAID, making legislative outcomes and party composition in coming sessions critical indicators
- Recent budget proposals and statements from executive branch officials regarding USAID's future form the immediate political baseline
- Historical precedent shows major federal agency eliminations are rare and typically require sustained bipartisan or single-party supermajority support
- Any restructuring short of formal elimination (such as reorganization, budget cuts, or consolidation into other agencies) would not resolve this contract positively
- International diplomatic and development policy priorities, as reflected in official statements and proposed alternatives, indicate relative political appetite for foreign aid functions

Contracts:
- Will USAID be eliminated?: USAID — 37¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 100%)
- Will EPA be eliminated?: EPA — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will IRS be eliminated?: IRS — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/agencyelim
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20USAID%20be%20eliminated
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev