39% — Will AGI be achieved by 2026?
Kalshi 39% · 7 contracts · $80K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-26 09:01:49 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Trump officially rename AI before Oct 1, 2026? — 20¢ Kalshi $34K (weight 43%)
- Will Trump officially rename AI before Nov 1, 2026? — 36¢ Kalshi $20K (weight 25%)
- Who will win the 2026 Maryland State Senate District 2 general election? — 94¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 19%)
- Who will win the 2026 Maryland State Senate District 2 general election? — 5¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 13%)
- Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election? — 41¢ Kalshi $856 (weight 1%)
- Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election? — 25¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election? — 55¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election? — 0¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-26T06:42:41.796Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/agi-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20AGI%20be%20achieved%20by%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev