6% — Will AGI be achieved by 2026?
Kalshi 6% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:07 UTC

Contracts:
- Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.388Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/agi-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20AGI%20be%20achieved%20by%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev