69% — Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2031 at 69% · Kalshi 69% · 12 contracts · $170 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that any company will publicly declare it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence by October 1, 2026—roughly five months from now. At 33%, the market reflects skepticism that such an announcement is imminent, despite recent advances in large language models and AI capabilities. The current level reflects uncertainty about whether companies will claim AGI has been achieved versus achieved and deployed. Upward pressure would come from rapid capability breakthroughs or companies adopting a lower threshold for what constitutes AGI. Downward pressure stems from the lack of consensus definition for AGI and companies' historical reluctance to make definitive claims about achieving it. The main uncertainty driver is whether any organization—whether OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or others—will make an explicit public announcement meeting the contract's criteria, as opposed to quietly advancing toward such capabilities. Key factors: - No company has yet publicly announced achieving AGI as of May 2026, despite sustained AI capability improvements - The contract requires a formal announcement by a named company, not merely reaching technical capabilities behind closed doors - Industry leaders have generally avoided claiming AGI achievement, instead using terms like 'advanced AI' or 'frontier models' - The five-month timeframe is relatively short for such a transformative claim to move from internal assessment to public announcement - Market prices for the October 2026 contract (33%) versus October 2027 contract (36%) show minimal probability shift despite a full additional year Contracts: - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 2031 — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030 — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029 — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?: Before Oct 1, 2028 — 59¢ Kalshi $82 (weight 48%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028?: Before Jul 1, 2028 — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?: Before Apr 1, 2028 — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 45¢ Kalshi $88 (weight 52%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027?: Before Oct 1, 2027 — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.320Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "69% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/agico Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20any%20company%20announce%20that%20it%20has%20achieved%20Artificial%20General%20Intelligence%20(AGI)%20before%20Oct%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev