81% — Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2031 at 81% · Kalshi 81% · 12 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 01:15:33 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that at least one company will publicly declare achieving AGI—artificial general intelligence capable of performing most intellectual tasks at human level or beyond—within the next three months. The 75% estimate is notably higher than the 5¢ Kalshi contract price suggests, indicating confidence among some market participants. The main driver of this elevated probability is recent progress in large language models and multimodal AI systems, combined with competitive pressure among leading labs to claim AGI status. However, the extremely low trading volume ($2 in 24 hours) and wide spread between this question and the Jan 1, 2027 version (10¢) suggest limited consensus. Key uncertainties include the definition of AGI itself—no consensus exists on measurable benchmarks—and whether companies will use the term in official announcements despite definitional ambiguity. The probability could shift dramatically based on announced AI capabilities or leadership statements in the coming weeks. Key factors: - Current leading AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, others) have not made AGI claims in official announcements as of early July 2026, despite rapid capability gains - The definition of AGI remains contested; no standardized test or benchmark widely accepted by the field determines when AGI has been achieved - Market pricing shows sharp probability drops for Jan 1, 2027 (10¢) and beyond, suggesting most probability mass is concentrated in the next 12 weeks rather than distributed across 2026-2027 - Trading volume is extremely low ($2 in 24h), indicating limited market participation and potential for large price swings from small new information - Company incentives to claim AGI are mixed: prestige and competitive advantage compete against reputational risk if claims are later disputed or overturned Contracts: - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 2031 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029 — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030 — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?: Before Oct 1, 2028 — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028?: Before Jul 1, 2028 — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?: Before Apr 1, 2028 — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027?: Before Oct 1, 2027 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T00:20:51.205Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/agico Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20any%20company%20announce%20that%20it%20has%20achieved%20Artificial%20General%20Intelligence%20(AGI)%20before%20Oct%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev