5% — Who will be the Democratic nominee for Attorney General in Colorado
Leader: Michael Dougherty at 5% · Kalshi 5% · 3 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 22:36:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently assign Jena Griswold a 78% probability of becoming the Democratic nominee for Attorney General in Colorado. Griswold's strong position reflects her incumbent advantage as the current Attorney General, name recognition, and fundraising capacity. The remaining 22% of probability is distributed among three challengers: David Seligman and Michael Dougherty are each at 7%, while Hetal Doshi trails at 4%. The Democratic primary race will be settled on the nomination date, likely at the state convention or through a primary vote. Key uncertainties include whether Griswold faces stronger-than-expected primary opposition, whether any challenger successfully mobilizes specific voter blocs, and whether late-stage campaign developments or endorsements shift momentum. The outcome depends on actual voter participation and preference rather than pre-election polling alone.

Key factors:
- Griswold is the sitting Attorney General with significant name recognition and institutional advantages
- Colorado's Democratic primary schedule and nomination rules determine when this contest is decided
- Fundraising disparities between Griswold and challengers reflect resource advantages visible in campaign finance filings
- No single challenger has consolidated opposition to Griswold, with the anti-incumbent vote split among multiple candidates
- Late endorsements from party leadership or major organizations could materially shift candidate viability before the nomination date

Contracts:
- Who will be the Democratic nominee for Attorney General in Colorado?: Hetal Doshi — 5¢ Kalshi $418 (weight 18%)
- Who will be the Democratic nominee for Attorney General in Colorado?: Michael Dougherty — 5¢ Kalshi $294 (weight 12%)
- Who will be the Democratic nominee for Attorney General in Colorado?: David Seligman — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 70%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-02T01:20:51.341Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/agnomcod
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20Attorney%20General%20in%20Colorado
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev