21% — Will AI be regulated?
Kalshi 21% · 6 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-23 23:42:19 UTC

Contracts:
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: ChatGPT — 14¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 59%)
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Claude — 63¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 28%)
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Grok — 6¢ Kalshi $724 (weight 6%)
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Gemini — 12¢ Kalshi $616 (weight 5%)
- Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027 — 15¢ Kalshi $139 (weight 1%)
- AI regulation by 2027?: By Jan 1, 2027 — 14¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:49.013Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ai-regulation
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20AI%20be%20regulated%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev