18% — Will AI be regulated?
Kalshi 18% · 9 contracts · $30K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:07 UTC

Contracts:
- Best AI in Dec 2026?: Grok — 8¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 47%)
- Best AI in Dec 2026?: Claude — 63¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 23%)
- Best AI in Dec 2026?: ChatGPT — 13¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 16%)
- Best AI in Dec 2026?: Gemini — 14¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 13%)
- Will legislation that imposes liability for damages caused by a chatbot impersonating certain licensed professionals become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes — 7¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 0%)
- Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027 — 18¢ Kalshi $71 (weight 0%)
- Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027 — 13¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%)
- AI regulation by 2027?: By Jan 1, 2027 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.156Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ai-regulation
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20AI%20be%20regulated%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev