19% — Will AI be regulated?
Kalshi 19% · 6 contracts · $47K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-07 14:13:24 UTC

Contracts:
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: ChatGPT — 25¢ Kalshi $26K (weight 56%)
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Grok — 7¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 23%)
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Claude — 58¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 12%)
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Gemini — 6¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 9%)
- Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027 — 12¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- AI regulation by 2027?: By Jan 1, 2027 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-07T13:20:48.923Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ai-regulation
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20AI%20be%20regulated%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev