78% — Will any AI model have a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: At least 1520 score at 78% · Kalshi 78% · 6 contracts · $5 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 01:25:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This asks whether any AI model will achieve a score of at least 1750 by year-end 2026, currently priced at 76% probability. The market structure shows declining prices at higher thresholds: 1520 is 76%, 1550 drops to 34%, and 1600 falls to 13%, suggesting uncertainty concentrates around whether models will exceed mid-range performance levels. The main drivers are: the rate of AI capability scaling in recent months, current best-model performance relative to the 1750 target, and the remaining ~6 months for frontier labs to release improved versions. Resolution hinges on which benchmarks define "score" and official reporting by major AI labs before December 31, 2026. Major model releases or benchmark updates in Q3-Q4 2026 would most directly impact this outcome.

Key factors:
- Current performance of leading AI models relative to 1750 threshold and historical acceleration rates over past 12 months
- Definition and standardization of the scoring mechanism—whether it references a specific published benchmark (e.g., ARC, MMLU, specialized domain scores)
- Number and timing of major AI model releases between now and Dec 31, 2026, and their reported performance levels
- Whether the 1750 target represents an incremental improvement from current leaders or a significant capability jump
- Clarity on reporting standards—which labs' official claims will count as valid evidence for resolution

Contracts:
- Will any AI model have a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1520 score — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will any AI model have a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1530 score — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will any AI model have a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1540 score — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1550 score — 35¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 100%)
- Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1600 score — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1650 score — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.637Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aispike
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20any%20AI%20model%20have%20a%20score%20of%20at%20least%201750%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev