16% — Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026
Kalshi 16% · 5 contracts · $823 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 08:51:31 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 28% probability that Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins will withdraw from the 2026 Alaska Governor race by September 1st. The current probability reflects that most candidates in Alaska's 2026 races remain in their contests, with only one candidate (Matt Schultz in the House race) showing high dropout likelihood at 93%. Kreiss-Tomkins' position as a Democratic candidate in a competitive gubernatorial race, combined with the approaching September 1st deadline, creates limited time for major campaign developments. The key driver of movement would be significant changes in polling numbers, fundraising capacity, or candidate viability metrics over the next week. The September 1st date represents the final deadline for candidate withdrawals, making it the critical resolution point for this market.

Key factors:
- Eight days remain until September 1st resolution, limiting time for campaign-altering developments or public withdrawals
- Kreiss-Tomkins is positioned as a major Democratic candidate in the gubernatorial race, suggesting organizational infrastructure favoring continuation
- Dropout probability for other major Alaska candidates in 2026 races averages 8-12%, establishing a baseline expectation that candidates remain through early September
- Recent campaign activity, funding status, and polling position relative to other Democratic primary competitors would indicate viability signaling
- No comparable recent Alaska gubernatorial race provides direct precedent for Democratic candidate withdrawal patterns near early September filing deadlines

Contracts:
- Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026?: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — 3¢ Kalshi $821 (weight 100%)
- Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. drop out of the Alaska U.S. Senate race before Sep 1, 2026?: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. — 15¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- Will Dave Bronson drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026?: Dave Bronson — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will David B. Leslie drop out of the Alaska U.S. Senate race before Sep 1, 2026?: David B. Leslie — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Tom Begich drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026?: Tom Begich — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-26T19:20:52.954Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/akdropoutaug
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jonathan%20Kreiss-Tomkins%20drop%20out%20of%20the%20Alaska%20Governor%20race%20before%20Sep%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev