20% — Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%
Leader: Mary Peltola, 0-3% at 20% · Kalshi 20% · 8 contracts · $105 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract predicts a 15% chance that Republican Dan Sullivan wins Alaska's 2026 Senate race by a margin between 3% and 6%. Markets currently price a closer outcome as more likely, with Sullivan's 0-3% margin victory at 13% probability. The underlying race appears competitive, with contract pricing suggesting uncertainty about both the winner and final margin. Key drivers include Alaska's recent voting patterns, early polling as the campaign develops, turnout dynamics in a state with historical volatility, and how effectively candidates mobilize their bases. The 2026 general election on November 3rd will ultimately resolve this outcome, though intervening primary results and campaign developments will reshape probabilities throughout the cycle.

Key factors:
- Dan Sullivan's 0-3% margin is priced slightly higher (13¢) than his 3-6% margin (12¢), suggesting markets expect either a decisive Sullivan win or a Peltola victory rather than a narrow Sullivan win
- Mary Peltola's 0-3% margin matches the current headline at 15%, indicating symmetric uncertainty—markets see close outcomes as most probable across multiple candidates
- The 3-6% margin contract shows minimal 24-hour volume ($0) compared to comparable outcomes, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially less refined price discovery in this specific band
- Alaska's recent electoral history includes both large swings (2022 ranked-choice results) and demonstrated ticket-splitting, making margin prediction volatile relative to winner prediction
- Markets assign only 5¢ probability to Sullivan winning by more than 12%, suggesting forecasters expect the race to tighten from any current state rather than diverge significantly

Contracts:
- Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?: Mary Peltola, 0-3% — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?: Dan Sullivan, 0-3% — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?: Mary Peltola, 3-6% — 12¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 95%)
- Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?: Dan Sullivan, 9-12% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?: Dan Sullivan, 3-6% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%?: Mary Peltola, 6-9% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?: Mary Peltola, 9-12% — 3¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 5%)
- Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%?: Dan Sullivan, 6-9% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.557Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/akmov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Dan%20Sullivan%20in%20the%202026%20Alaska%20Senate%20election%20be%20between%203%25%20and%206%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev