93% — Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,750
Leader: Above $750 at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 5 contracts · $555 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) for 2027 is projected to exceed $1,750 with 6% probability according to current market prices, reflecting skepticism about dividend payments reaching that threshold. The PFD amount depends primarily on the fund's investment returns and the statutory calculation formula that distributes a portion of the fund's realized earnings. Market prices suggest traders expect the 2027 dividend to land between $750–$1,250, with high confidence it will exceed $750. The dividend amount will be officially announced in late 2026 or early 2027 based on the fund's performance through the prior fiscal year, making historical returns and current market conditions the critical drivers of the final payout level.

Key factors:
- The Alaska Permanent Fund's 2026 market performance and realized returns directly determine the 2027 payout under the statutory formula
- Historical PFD amounts ranged from roughly $1,000–$2,000 depending on fund performance; 2025 payouts were approximately $1,312 per person
- The fund must publish 2027 dividend projections or official amounts in late 2026, creating a concrete resolution date
- Federal and state legislation changes to the PFD formula or distribution rules could alter the payout, though such changes are infrequent
- Oil price volatility and broader equity market conditions between now and the calculation deadline influence the fund's asset base and investment returns

Contracts:
- Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $750?: Above $750 — 93¢ Kalshi $555 (weight 100%)
- Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,000?: Above $1,000 — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,250?: Above $1,250 — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,500?: Above $1,500 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,750?: Above $1,750 — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:50.748Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/akpfd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20official%20Alaska%20Permanent%20Fund%20Dividend%20amount%20for%202027%20be%20above%20%241%2C750
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev