70% — Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary
Kalshi 70% · 5 contracts · $2 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:30:39 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the probability that Bill Hill will finish in the top four of Alaska's 2026 general election primary, qualifying him for the ranked-choice runoff. Hill's 68% probability reflects moderate confidence compared to frontrunners Matthew Schultz and Nicholas Begich (both at 94%) but ahead of John Brendan Williams (58%). The current level likely reflects Hill's campaign performance, polling position if available, and fundraising relative to other candidates. The main factors pushing his probability would be strong candidate performance in the lead-up to the election or a shift in voter preference, while weak campaign activity or consolidation around other candidates could lower it. The primary election on August 18, 2026 will definitively resolve whether Hill qualifies for the runoff by revealing actual vote totals and final ranking among all candidates.

Key factors:
- Hill ranks third in implied qualification probability behind Schultz (94¢) and Begich (94¢), suggesting frontrunners are more established
- A 26-percentage-point gap between Hill (68¢) and top-tier candidates indicates meaningful uncertainty about his qualification relative to clear frontrunners
- Hill maintains 11-percentage-point advantage over John Brendan Williams (58¢), suggesting differentiation among mid-tier candidates
- Alaska's top-four primary system requires Hill to accumulate enough first-choice votes to reach the runoff field, not merely win outright
- The August 18, 2026 primary date is the single event that will resolve this contract, with results immediately determining qualification status

Contracts:
- Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Bill Hill — 92¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 100%)
- Will John Brendan Williams qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: John Brendan Williams — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Matthew Schultz qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Matthew Schultz — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Matthew Williams qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Matthew Williams — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Nicholas Begich qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Nicholas Begich — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T00:20:48.969Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "70% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/akprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bill%20Hill%20qualify%20for%20the%20runoff%20in%20the%202026%20Alaska%20top-four%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev