66% — Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary
Kalshi 66% · 5 contracts · $12 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:53:45 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Bill Hill — 71¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 100%)
- Will John Brendan Williams qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: John Brendan Williams — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Matthew Schultz qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Matthew Schultz — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Matthew Williams qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Matthew Williams — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Nicholas Begich qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Nicholas Begich — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:12.180Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "66% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/akprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bill%20Hill%20qualify%20for%20the%20runoff%20in%20the%202026%20Alaska%20top-four%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev