85% — Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 130 million fish or above Leader: At least 100 million at 85% · Kalshi 85% · 11 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-10 02:29:39 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 67% probability that Alaska's commercial salmon catch will exceed 110 million fish in 2026. The prediction reflects expectations about ocean conditions, salmon population health, and fishing pressure. Key drivers of the current probability include recent harvest data showing catches in the 100-130 million range over the past decade, with significant year-to-year variation driven by water temperature, returning stock numbers, and regulatory decisions. The market prices suggest traders view a 110+ million harvest as likely but not certain. Final resolution will depend on actual catch data reported by Alaska's Department of Fish and Game, typically available in fall 2026. Ocean conditions during the 2026 fishing season and pre-season population estimates will be critical signals that could shift probabilities notably before the season begins. Key factors: - Historical Alaska commercial salmon harvests averaged 105-120 million annually over the past 10 years, establishing the baseline for current probability levels - The price curve shows declining probability at higher thresholds (67% at 110M, 55% at 120M, 31% at 140M), indicating trader uncertainty about upper-range outcomes - Pre-season run forecasts released by Alaska fisheries agencies typically in April-May 2026 would provide concrete population estimates that could materially shift market prices - Ocean temperature and freshwater conditions during spring-summer 2026 directly affect salmon survival rates and migration success, influencing final harvest volumes - Regulatory harvest limits and in-season adjustments by Alaska fisheries managers can constrain catches regardless of fish availability Contracts: - Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?: At least 100 million — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?: At least 105 million — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?: At least 110 million — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?: At least 115 million — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?: At least 120 million — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 125 million fish or above?: At least 125 million — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 130 million fish or above?: At least 130 million — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 135 million fish or above?: At least 135 million — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-10T02:20:48.919Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aksalmon Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alaska's%202026%20commercial%20all%20salmon%20harvest%20total%20130%20million%20fish%20or%20above Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev