35% — Will Dustin Darden qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race
Kalshi 35% · 9 contracts · $3 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:47:28 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the estimated chance that Dustin Darden will advance to Alaska's general election runoff in the 2026 Senate race. At 38%, the market suggests Darden is a credible but uncertain contender among multiple candidates competing for one of two runoff spots. The main factors influencing this level include Darden's current standing in polling relative to frontrunners like Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan (who show near-certain probabilities of advancing), as well as donor support and campaign infrastructure. The primary uncertainty catalyst will be the August primary election, when Alaska's ranked-choice voting system determines which two candidates proceed to the general election. Polling data releases and candidate announcements in the coming months will also help clarify the competitive landscape and likely shift expectations.

Key factors:
- Darden's performance relative to top-tier candidates Peltola and Sullivan, whose individual probabilities exceed 90%
- Total number and strength of competing candidates dividing the non-frontrunner vote
- Voter preference patterns in Alaska's ranked-choice primary system, which requires securing sufficient first and secondary preferences
- Polling data releases between now and the August 19, 2026 primary election
- Campaign fundraising and spending relative to other mid-tier candidates

Contracts:
- Will Dustin Darden qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: Dustin Darden — 58¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 100%)
- Will Carol Hafner qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: Carol Hafner — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Dan J. Sullivan qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: Dan J. Sullivan — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Dan S. Sullivan qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: Dan S. Sullivan — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Fred C. Grauberger qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: Fred C. Grauberger — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Mary Peltola qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: Mary Peltola — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Richard Grayson qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: Richard Grayson — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Sid Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: Sid Hill — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.410Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aksenadvance
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Dustin%20Darden%20qualify%20for%20the%20runoff%20in%20the%202026%20Alaska%20Senate%20race
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev